Forecasting Revenue Example Part 2
- 03:08
Forecasting revenue example part 2
Transcript
With the historic revenues populated into the income statement, we can then move on to think about the assumptions for the growth rates into the future of Roy's products. On a line by line basis, we're assuming for high B in Spain that we've reached market saturation.
We're not gonna get huge amounts of extra sales, but also we're still within our license period on an international basis.
We're assuming that Roe V have just signed a new contract with a new international market in late 2019.
So the sales in 2020 are gonna grow substantially, but beyond that, there's gonna be no new international markets identified. And as a result, we get a decline in our growth rate of our revenue in NOx Powerin. We're gonna get strong growth rate from, 'cause they're still in the early stage of their product lifecycle and not outside of their patent window.
But Vitorin and Absol are already outside of their patent windows.
And in 2023 or Tase will join them as well.
So all of our growth rates are based on whether the product is within its patent period and experienced strong growth or outside of its window experiencing less strong growth for other.
If we look at the historic figure, other has 16 million worth of Euros revenue within this was one product that was stopped at the end of 2019, which generated 13 million of revenue.
So as a result, we're going to assume to keep it simple, that we only have 3 million of revenue through the forecast period.
For other bearing in mind that all of these balances are in thousands of euros.
So if we go down to the revenue on a product by product basis, we can now create forecasts for what revenue will look like in the future by taking the historic revenue figure and multiplying by one plus our growth rate from the top half of the table.
So for high bought in Spain, 3% for the first year, we can copy that down for high bought nationally.
Next we have Enoxaparin biosimilar. Again, same formula.
Pick up the growth rate for Enoxaparin, our 31% growth rate.
We can then copy this all the way down to our Veloza product.
Doria. We're going to leave blank because this is a product which has yet to be launched by ROE V.
And we will deal with the expected future revenue separately on the pipeline drug tab, pick up other the absolute value of 3 million, and then we need to apply growth rates to the contrast agents, again using the assumption from the top half of this tab.
And then finally, for our sale of services, which will give us our forecast revenue for the 2020 year of 417 million euros, which we'll then pull through to the income statement to finish off revenues within the income statement tab.
We're going to assume that the government grants stay constant over time, and then we can just create our subtotals for the total revenue in the historic years and also into the first forecast year of 2020 as well.