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Healthcare - Analysis and Modeling

Understand the business drivers, key modeling assumptions, and valuation metrics for the healthcare sector.

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23 Lessons (70m)

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  • Description & Objectives

  • 1. Healthcare Companies Overviews and Valuations | Interactive Video

  • 2. What are Healthcare Industries

    01:33
  • 3. What Makes Them Special

    02:55
  • 4. Treatment of R&D Costs

    04:43
  • 5. Forecasting Revenue

    01:48
  • 6. Forecasting Revenue Example - Part 1

    02:57
  • 7. Forecasting Revenue Example Part 2

    03:08
  • 8. Forecasting Pipeline Market Size

    03:18
  • 9. Forecasting Pipeline Revenue by Region EU Part 1

    04:54
  • 10. Forecasting Pipeline Revenue by Region EU Part 2

    02:21
  • 11. Forecasting Pipeline Revenue by Region EU Part 3

    03:12
  • 12. Forecasting Pipeline Revenue by Region EU Part 4

    03:28
  • 13. Forecasting Pipeline Revenue by Region US

    05:20
  • 14. Forecasting Pipeline Revenue - Pulling It All Together

    03:24
  • 15. Accounting for Joint Ventures

    01:12
  • 16. Taxation of Pharmaceutical Companies

    03:27
  • 17. Understanding the Financial Statements

    02:35
  • 18. Forecasting Income Statement Revenues and Gross Profit

    03:07
  • 19. Forecasting Income Statement R&D and SG&A Expenses

    03:45
  • 20. Balance Sheet Workings

    02:34
  • 21. Populating the Balance Sheet

    03:31
  • 22. Cash Flow Statement

    05:15
  • 23. Finishing off the Income Statement

    02:08

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Forecasting Income Statement R&D and SG&A Expenses

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  • 03:45

Forecasting income statement R&D and SG&A expenses.

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Transcript

Moving on down the income statement, the next expense that we can forecast is our r and d expenses, r and d expenses taken as a percentage of our sales, no worries about any impact of pipeline drugs.

So just straightforward 6% of our total revenue in this instance to give us our r and d expenses for these selling general and admin expenses, though we do need to be a little bit careful because we have also forecast these sg and a expenses for our pipeline drug.

So same approach as before.

We need to calculate the SG a expenses as if there was no pipeline drug effect to begin with.

So let's do that. To start off with, the assumption is that SG a expenses are 35% of our sales, but excluding any pipeline revenue.

So we take our total sales and subtract from that, the pipeline sales from the revenue tab.

This would give us our SG NA expenses if there was no SG NA expenses on those pipeline drugs.

But then we also need to add onto this, the sg a expenses from the pipeline drug that we've already forecast within the pipeline.

Drug tap column I here for 2020.

Both of these expenses need to be shown as negative balances.

For the other expenses, we assume a zero expense.

And for our profit from our joint ventures, again, we're gonna assume zero profit.

It's been very volatile over the last four years, so hard to predict whether that's gonna be positive or negative in the future.

From the historic period, we can calculate EBITDA as the gross profits and then add to that the sum of the above operating expenses, and then we can roll that forward into our first forecast period.

Depreciation and amortization are gonna be solved from the balance sheet, so we'll populate this later, and then we can calculate our EBIT and copy that into the forecast period as well before moving on down. To solve for our finance costs, the subtotal historically is just a subtotal of our finance income and our finance expense or costs, and any non-recurring items.

If we then calculate our profit before tax by adding together our EBIT and our net finance cost as an expense, and then finally we can solve for our income tax being the sum profit for tax and income tax expense.

This is the one balance that for all of these, we can actually calculate our finance costs and finance income. We're going to populate at the bottom from the bottom of the cashflow statement.

Non-recurring expenses, we're going to assume our constant at zero, and our income tax is calculated as a percentage of profit before tax, 9% of that profit before Tax, but we want to show this negatively as an expense to finish off the income statement.

We then have our shares outstanding for the year end and the weighted average.

We're going to just copy those across for previous years, and our earnings per share is gonna be calculated as a net income divided by the weighted average shares outstanding for the year.

Our final assumption is gonna be in relation to dividends per share.

Dividends are gonna be eight percentage of, in our assumptions, 25% in line with last year's dividend payout rate.

So 25% of the earnings per share.

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