Forecasting Pipeline Revenue by Region EU Part 3
- 03:12
Forecasting pipeline revenue by region EU, understanding gross profit margins and their impact.
Glossary
Healthcare ModelTranscript
Gross profit is gonna be calculated as, we've gotta be careful here that we have a different profit margin.
So 80% are gross profit margin as a proportion of our direct sales.
But we also have to add on to that our gross profit margin of 95% as a proportion of our indirect sales.
Okay? So this would be our gross profit if we didn't have to worry about this movement in the gross profit margin after the peak year.
But it is something that we're building into our model.
We're assuming that there is cost pressure that comes in after the peak year eroding some of our market share, and to try to offset some of that competition.
We may have to cut our prices, and if we're cutting our prices, we're making a smaller profit for each dollar that we're selling.
We need to build an extra element to this function.
I'm gonna deduct from this and if statement and if statement is gonna say, well, if we are beyond the peak year, so if the year that we're in 31st of December, 2021 in this instance is greater than 31st of December, 2026, then we need this if statement.
Okay? So if that's true, it means we're beyond the peak.
And if we're beyond the peak, then we wanna see a reduction in our profit margin.
So that reduction in our profit margin is gonna be the 3% annual reduction in our profit margin.
I'm going to need to multiply that by the number of years that we are past our peak.
So we're gonna need another function here.
I wanna use the year function.
So the number of the year that we're in, again, up to row three.
And I wanna subtract from that the year of our peak year.
So that's the number of years.
So we've got C 31, which is the reduction in the profit margin times the number of years we are past the peak, but I also need to multiply this by the revenue for that year as well.
Remember that the gross profit margin is a percentage of revenue.
So if we're seeing a reduction in the gross profit margin, we're also gonna see gross profit go down by that percentage of revenue.
If that's not true, so we're not beyond the peak year, I just want nothing in here.
So that doesn't change what happens in the first year, but as we carry this across further to the right, we'll be able to see that there will be a reduction in our profit margins.
So let's just go ahead and do that.
What I wanna be able to demonstrate is the change in the gross profit margin as we get beyond the peak year, while our gross profit margin is calculated by taking our gross profit and dividing it by the total revenue.
And if we copy this to the right up to the peak year 2026, you can see that gross profit margin remains constant.
It's the weighted average of our profit margin on our direct sales of 80%, and the profit margin on the indirect sales of 95%.
However, as we get beyond the peak year, we see the gross profit margin decline by 3% per year, which is what we are assuming takes place through this assumption.
So the gross profit margin does actually decline by 3% as we go after the peak year, year on year.