Forecasting Pipeline Revenue by Region EU Part 4
- 03:28
Forecasting pipeline revenue by region EU part 4
Glossary
Healthcare Model Healthcare RevenueTranscript
To then wrap up what we've got in the profitability within the European market for Doria through this forecast period.
We then need to think about our commercial costs, commercial costs, advertising and such. Like we're gonna assume here that it is 20 million euros in the first year, so I'm gonna pick that value up and multiply it by a thousand to turn it into thousands of euros.
I'm also gonna make it negative because in our income statement, expenses are shown as a negative value.
But we also have some other assumptions here. And our assumptions here are that there is inflation in our commercial costs up to the peak year.
So we're gonna keep marketing our product up to the peak year beyond the peak year when we're getting maybe increase in terms of cost pressure.
We're going to reduce our commercial costs, reduce our money spent on marketing and advertising by 20% per year.
So this value is either gonna grow by 4% if we're before the peak, or four by 20% if we're after the peak.
So again, we're gonna need an if statement, we're gonna need to take the previous year and then multiply it by our if statement.
And the if statement says if the year that we're in back to oh three is greater than 2026, lock onto that.
So if we're beyond the peak year, then the change we wanna see every year is one minus the 20% deduction in costs.
If we're before the peak year though, we wanna see one plus the inflation level of those commercial costs.
So here we're saying if we're beyond the peak year, reduce costs by 20%.
If we're before the peak year, increase commercial costs by 4%.
So for the 2022 year good work before the peak growing by 4%.
If we then copy this all the way out for the whole 10 years, then we can see that we get growing costs up to the peak year and then substantially declining costs thereafter.
The final cost we're gonna look at is our manufacturing and logistics costs.
These are our sg and a costs associated with the manufacturing of our products.
And our assumption here is that the manufacturing and logistics costs are 25% of revenue.
Now we've gotta be a little bit careful with this assumption.
We only incur these costs in relation to our direct sales.
We don't have any manufacturing and logistical fixed costs in relation to indirect sales.
And also we want to make this negative so that it shows up as a expense big negative in our income statement.
So once we've got this all sorted, we can now go onto our EBITDA calculation.
EBITDA is going to be our gross profit, plus the commercial costs and the manufacturing and logistical costs, giving us a EBITDA loss in the first year.
But if we, again, copy this out to the right, we can see that we end up with substantial profits in the peak year.
So what we can see here is that our EBITDA margin Grows all the way through to the peak year as our market share is growing, and the market itself is growing at 6.5% faster than the growth in our commercial costs.
Beyond the peak, though, we are getting a reduction in sales, but also a reduction in the commercial costs.
And eventually over time that reduction in revenue overtakes the reduction in commercial costs, and we get a reduction in our EBITDA margin.