Forecasting Pipeline Revenue - Pulling It All Together
- 03:24
Forecasting pipeline revenue - pulling it all together
Glossary
Healthcare ModelTranscript
Now that we have expected revenue, gross profit, and EBITDA forecast out through till 2030 for Europe and the US individually, we can now begin to pull it all together.
So we can add together the revenue, gross profit, sg and a and EBITDA values from the US and Europe values individually, which I'll go ahead and do now.
So we've got those pulled down for the 2021 forecast.
Even though there's no values for the US here, I'll put the formulas in the correct place.
We can then calculate our gross margins, gross profit divided by revenue and EBITDA margins, EBITDA divided by revenue, and then we can copy these across for the whole 11 year forecast period out to 2 20 30.
So before we bring these revenues and profits into our forecasts for RO V, we're going to risk weight these values by applying a probability based on the probability of success.
Now, in 2019, Doria was a long way down the regulatory approval, and as a result, it's really likely that ROE V are gonna achieve the necessary regulatory approvals.
So if we go back to our assumptions, we can see that the probability of success, both for the US market and also the European market, has been set at 90%.
So we're gonna bring that into the table and take all of the values from the table above and simply multiply them by the probability of success.
And then just copy that across for all of the values in the above table, and then recalculate for the margins, hopefully proven that they remain consistent.
The risk adjusted revenues from the pipeline drug tab can now be brought forward into the revenues tab.
We need to make sure we pick up the correct column.
So our first forecast year is the 2020 year.
So if we then go down to our risk adjusted revenues, the 2020 year is in column I, We can then copy that across for the four years of our forecast period.
However, we still want to make this flexible.
So we're gonna put a switch in relation to these pipeline revenues through an if statement.
And we have a named sell the pipeline switch.
So if the pipeline switch equals one, then we pull the value in through from the pipeline drug tab.
However, if that is not one, then we don't these values through at all.
Currently, that pipeline switch is set to zero.
It's on the info tab.
So if we go through to the info tab and change the pipeline switch to one, we should now see in the revenues tab the revenue for Doria being pulled through on a risk adjusted basis.