Forecasting Pipeline Revenue by Region US
- 05:20
Forecasting pipeline revenue by region in the US market.
Glossary
Healthcare ModelTranscript
We now need to come to forecast the revenue and profitability for sales of Doria within the US market.
Our expectation here is that the sales won't begin until 2022 a year later than in Europe, but the process otherwise is broadly the same.
So let's go ahead and do that.
So we now have the anticipated long-acting injectable US schizophrenia drug market.
We also have the peak year of 2027 here, and also Dory's expected market share in each of these future years.
Note that the market share we expect here is less than we had for Europe, but also that there is far greater growth in the US market than we had across Europe.
We'll now go on to populate the remaining profitability figures and revenue figures for Dory's sales in the us.
Bearing in mind that all of those sales are gonna be on an indirect basis.
So from just this first forecast year, we can see that although the market share is really small in the US because the US market is so much bigger than the European market, there is still the substantial 6 million euros of profit that we're expecting in terms of gross profit and ebitda because there are no commercial costs and no manufacturing costs incurred when, when we're making these sales on an indirect basis.
Let's just copy this forward for the whole forecast period, Which then shows us that we can see substantial potential profitability here from sales of Doria in the US even on a licensed basis on this indirect basis maxing out in the peak year of 74 million euros.
So we now have the anticipated long-acting injectable US schizophrenia drug markets.
We also have the peak year of 2027 here, and also Dory's expected market share in each of these future years.
Note that the market share we expect here is less than we had for Europe, but also that there is far greater growth in the US market than we had across Europe.
We'll now go on to populate the remaining profitability figures and revenue figures for Doria sales in the us.
Bearing in mind that all of those sales are gonna be on an indirect basis.
So from just this first forecast year, we can see that although the market share is really small in the US because the US market is so much bigger than the European market, there is still the substantial 6 million euros of profit that we're expecting in terms of gross profit and ebitda because there are no commercial costs and no manufacturing costs incurred when when we're making these sales on an indirect basis.
Let's just copy this forward for the whole forecast period, Which then shows us that we can see substantial potential profitability here from sales of Doria in the US even on a licensed basis.
On this indirect basis.
Maxing out in the peak year of 74 million euros.