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P&C Insurance Modeling

Understand how to model and value P&C insurance companies.

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16 Lessons (62m)

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  • Description & Objectives

  • 1. Model Introduction

    01:31
  • 2. Earned Premiums

    02:53
  • 3. Claims Expense and Reinsurance

    02:52
  • 4. Rest of the Income Statement

    02:36
  • 5. Calculations

    03:48
  • 6. Historical Reserve Analysis

    02:30
  • 7. Historical Payout Analysis

    04:51
  • 8. Historical Claims Payout Schedule

    03:50
  • 9. Forecast Claims Payout Schedule

    04:51
  • 10. Gross Reported Claims BASE Calculation

    02:09
  • 11. Funding Side of the Balance Sheet

    04:33
  • 12. Asset Side of the Balance Sheet

    06:39
  • 13. Financial Returns and Expense

    06:23
  • 14. Discounted Dividend Model

    05:31
  • 15. Relative Valuation

    05:14
  • 16. P&C Insurance Model Tryout


Prev: Life Insurance Modeling

Calculations

  • Notes
  • Questions
  • Transcript
  • 03:48

Understand the main backing calculations needed for a property and casualty insurance company

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5.1-Calculations-empty5.1-Calculations

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Calculations Financial Modeling general insurance Insurance P&C property and casualty
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Transcript

In preparation for the balance sheet, we're going to complete the rest of the calculations first. The first of these is going to be the deferred acquisition costs. This is sometimes shortened to DAC or D-A-C. And we're just going to do this because we've actually already got some acquisition costs on the income statement. So now we're going to do the base calculation. So I'm gonna just put the beginning balance down, which is equal to the balance of last year. And then we've got the cash acquisition costs. So we're going to link the cash acquisition costs to the assumption, which is a percentage of the gross premiums written. And that's at the top of the income statement. I guess you could also link it to the net premiums written. I don't think it's gonna make a big difference unless you're seeing big swings in the reinsurance. In this case, we don't actually have a net written premiums. We've just got a gross number. So that is the amount of cash spend that we've had on these payments to brokers, websites, et cetera. And then the acquisition cost expense, I'm gonna assume that this is equal to the amount on the income statement, and you can see that in the history, that's exactly what has happened. So I'm going to link that to the income statement. I can just copy that across because that's coming from the income statement. And that's actually what we're expensing. So we started with 171. We spent 190, we expense 191.8, and the sum of that is gonna give us the ending balance there. So that's our deferred acquisition cost. And then we can come down and we can just do equity. So I'm gonna do my beginning balance is equal to the ending balance of the prior year. I'm gonna put in net income, which is going to come from the income statement all the way down here. Now, in order to calculate dividends here, we're not going to give a specific assumption for dividends. Instead, what we're going to do is we're actually gonna forecast an ending balance of equity according to a particular capital ratio or solvency requirement. And in this case,

is going to remain 90.9% of the premiums written. So I'm just going to multiply that by the premiums written. And we've only got one premiums written, which is the gross written premiums.

And that means that we've got a beginning balance. We've got the net income added during the year, and we know what our ending balance needs to be to maintain that capital ratio. So to calculate the dividends, what I'm going to do is I'm gonna start by taking the beginning balance, and I'm going to add the net income and subtract the ending balance. Now, in this case, if you take the 2,573 plus the 309, it gets you to a little under 2,900, which essentially means that the owners of this insurance company need to put capital back into the business. So if I hit enter, it comes up as negative, but actually that is a capital contribution that's needed. And if I just put these in parentheses, this calculation, and then I'm gonna multiply it by minus one, and that will give me my dividends or capital required. So actually, if that's negative, it would be dividends, or it's capital required if it's positive because in order, if I add those three items up, that would equal to 978, which essentially means we can't pay any dividends here. We need to actually put capital into the business. Now, that will probably change in the future, but it all depends on the assumption that you are making for the capital requirements. We're not going to do any interest costs, and the next item to do is the claims liability.

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