Historical Claims Payout Schedule
- 03:50
Understand how to model the payout of historical reserves
Transcript
So now we've got to do the historical claims payout and we're gonna take each of the remaining reserves and we're going to then forecast out their payout. So let's start with year 10. Currently, of the claims expense 10 years ago, there's only 2% left to pay out, which is in the reserves of 120.5. I've just grossed that up by taking the remaining amount divided by the percentage of the original left to give the original claims expense. And that just makes it functionally easier to model. So then what I'm going to do to actually calculate the payout is to take the original claims expense and I'm gonna multiply it by the amount that's going to be paid in the following year, which, of course, is year 11. So we'll have 120 to pay and that's equal to the current reserve because actually, there's only one year left to pay out. Then in year nine, we estimated based on only 5% being left of the reserve and there's 95 that is disclosed in the accounts. Then what we'll do is we'll gross that up again by taking the 95 divided by 5%. Now, in this case, because this is nine years after the policy year, then we've got two years remaining to pay out. So I'll take the original claims expense and I'll absolute reference this once and then I'm gonna multiply that by year 10 and hit enter, which is 3%, which is the 57.1 and then I'll copy that right because I also want to get year 11. Now, those two added together equal 95.1, which is the amount in the current reserves. Then I'm going to continue and I'll do year eight. So again, we estimated, well, we know that year eight, we have 74.6 million remaining of the reserve. Based on our assumptions, that should represent 8% of the total. So we've grossed that up to the original amount. And again, the original amounts are slightly quirky here 'cause I think they've done some divestitures but you'll get the principle of what we're doing. So I'll take the original amount, absolute reference it. And in this case, we've got three years left, so we'll start with year nine, one year after and we'll do year 10 and year 11 of the payout. So I'll just copy that right. And again, those three amounts should equal the underlying reserve left, which is 74.6. I'll just check. Yes, they do. And now what I'm going to do is I'm just going to finish off this section quickly.
So let's just do a final check now. So the year one, we have a current reserve of 1,126. We estimate that 51% has already been paid out. So the original claims expense would've been 2,208. So I've estimated this payout over time for the next 10 years, and that's adds up to 1,126.1 and that's the amount of the reserve. So that's all correct. And then what I'm going to do is I'm just going to sum up the historical claims payout for each year and I'll just copy that across. So I've got the total set. Now what I'm ready to do is the new claims payout.