Gross Reported Claims BASE Calculation
- 02:09
Understand how to model the gross reported claims
Transcript
Now we're going to just complete the base calculation for the gross reported claims, and I'm gonna pick up the ending balance from the historical balance sheet. So I'll go down and I'm gonna get the claims reported, the 3001, that's a historical number. Then what I'm going to do is the beginning balance is going to equal the ending balance of the prior year and we're gonna now pick up the additional claims reported and we're just going to take these as the claims expense. Now technically, the claims expense goes into the incurred but not reported first, and then in the reported claims. But just for some simplicity, we're going to assume it goes straight into the reported claims. It's not gonna make a material difference to the underlying numbers. So I'm gonna come down to my income statement and I'll get the claims expense. I've got to flip the sign, so I'm gonna time and multiply it by minus one, and I'm gonna add that. And then we've got the payout of both the historical and the forecast claims, which I've got up above. So I'll take the historical claims payout times minus one and then I'll take the forecast claims payout times minus one. So what will happen over time, if I just sum this up, is that you will see the historical claims start to decline and the forecast claims start to rise as we progress through the forecast. Now, it's a bit bumpy in the first few years because I think there's been a bit of M and A activity, which are affecting the numbers. But if I copy this right towards the end of the forecast, we should see that relationship normalizing. And you can see, as expected, we're seeing the historical claims reduce steadily and then the forecast claims increase steadily. And that's our base calculation for the gross reported claims. And once we've done this, we're now ready to do the balance sheet. And on the balance sheet, what we're going to do is we're going to do the liabilities and equity first because effectively, that is what is funding the business and that provides the funding for the assets.