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P&C Insurance Modeling

Understand how to model and value P&C insurance companies.

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16 Lessons (62m)

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  • Description & Objectives

  • 1. Model Introduction

    01:31
  • 2. Earned Premiums

    02:53
  • 3. Claims Expense and Reinsurance

    02:52
  • 4. Rest of the Income Statement

    02:36
  • 5. Calculations

    03:48
  • 6. Historical Reserve Analysis

    02:30
  • 7. Historical Payout Analysis

    04:51
  • 8. Historical Claims Payout Schedule

    03:50
  • 9. Forecast Claims Payout Schedule

    04:51
  • 10. Gross Reported Claims BASE Calculation

    02:09
  • 11. Funding Side of the Balance Sheet

    04:33
  • 12. Asset Side of the Balance Sheet

    06:39
  • 13. Financial Returns and Expense

    06:23
  • 14. Discounted Dividend Model

    05:31
  • 15. Relative Valuation

    05:14
  • 16. P&C Insurance Model Tryout


Prev: Life Insurance Modeling

Asset Side of the Balance Sheet

  • Notes
  • Questions
  • Transcript
  • 06:39

Understand how to model the asset side of the balance sheet of a property and casualty insurance company

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12.1-Asset-side-of-the-balance-sheet-empty12.1-Asset-side-of-the-balance-sheet

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asset side of the balance sheet Financial Modeling general insurance Insurance P&C property and casualty
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Transcript

Now, for the asset side of the balance sheet, we're actually gonna start from the long-term section and work our way up, mainly because the plug in this model is going to be the financial assets, these three items. So we're gonna start with the reinsurance assets, and there's an assumption in the assumption section right down at the very bottom of the list of assets, and I'm gonna take this, and this is a percentage of the reported claims. And the reason we're doing this is because the balance sheet needs to be a gross number. In other words, we're assuming that the policies that we've given to the reinsurer are gonna stay on the balance sheet as a liability, and therefore we need to reflect that they actually are liable for some of those liabilities, and that's why we're putting the asset on the other side of the balance sheet. Now, for the property, plant and equipment, often in a corporation model, we would do a base calculation, but it's so small, it's just hardly worth forecasting. So we're just going to take the assumption for property, plant, and equipment, and this will be linked to the level of activity in the business. And you can see it's a percentage of premiums written, and I'm gonna take gross premiums written, because remember the balance sheet is effectively a gross balance sheet, includes the reinsurers share. So let me go up to the premiums written, there we go, and that's going to be my property, plant, and equipment number. So for the goodwill and other intangible assets, we're just going to make it equal to last year. We're gonna assume that there's no new acquisitions, so the goodwill number wouldn't change. And now we're ready to go to the current asset side, and we've got other current assets, and I'm gonna come up to the top here and pick up the assumption for other current assets. And again, it's a percentage of premiums written, so I'm just gonna multiply that by the premiums written on the income statement.

There we go, and again on a gross basis. And then we've got another assumption for the pre-payments, accrued income, and other assets, so I'll go and get the assumption for the pre-payments, which again, it will be in the assumption block, and again a percentage of premiums written. So premiums written is a kind of key driver of the business when we're forecasting this out. So let's go and get the insurance and other receivables assumption from the income statement, and go up to the top here, and it's a percentage of the premiums written. And again, I'll take the gross premiums written from the top of the income statement. Please remember this is all on a gross basis on the balance sheet. There we go, and we have deferred acquisition costs. Now, the deferred acquisition costs, this is where we've paid third parties to get the policies, and we've already done a base calculation for the deferred acquisition costs, or sometimes abbreviated to DAC, and that just goes onto the balance sheet. Now, before I go any further, I'm just going to finish the subtotals for total assets and the subtotals for total current assets, and you should see that these will all feed in, yep, and it's still adding in those financial assets. Now, the financial assets lines, these are effectively plugs. So what I'm going to do first is I'm gonna go up to the assumption section, all the way at the top, and we should have the amount of invested assets. And if I come just down here, here we go, total investment assets. Now, you can see here, this is effectively a plug, and we couldn't need to do that on the historical balance sheet, but we have done, so the total equity and liabilities, I've taken that number, and then I've subtracted all the individual assets except cash, financial investments, and investment property. Notice I have ignored the subtotals. You must ignore the subtotals, otherwise, you will get a circular reference, which at this point, you do not want. So that's how we have calculated the balance, and I actually, that means I can just copy that across. If I go back up to the assumptions, I can then copy across that total. So the total investment assets is just a plug on the balance sheet, and I'm gonna copy that across. And you can see it's zero in the future years, 'cause I haven't copied across the balance sheet yet. And then what we've got is we are breaking down the investment assets between property, financial investments, and cash. And cash is effectively a plug, so I'll just take that 100% minus the property minus the financial investments, and that will give me my breakdown. So once I've done that, I'm now ready to forecast those items on the balance sheet. So I'll come down to the balance sheet, and what I'm going to do is I'm gonna take from the investment property, I will go up and get the assumption as a percentage of invested assets that I've just calculated, the 5.2, and then I'll multiply it by the total investment assets that I've put. Again this is a plug, remember, on the assumption section.

And then I'm going to do the same thing with the financial investments, go up to the assumption section, and I'll take the assumption, 76.2, which is the bulk of the investment assets multiplied by the total investment assets there.

And then what I'm going to do is I'm gonna take cash and cash equivalents assumption, which I have plugged, effectively. That's a plug of a plug even, and I'll take the 18.6% multiplied by the investment assets, and there is the balance sheet. Now hopefully, if I've done those plugs correctly, the balance sheet should balance. So I've got 9,893.7 of total assets and 9,893.7 of total liabilities and equity, and the balance sheet balances. Now, we're not finished, because we haven't done the interest calculations and we haven't done the valuation, but the balance sheet balances, and it's ready to be copied across, so I'll just do that now to just copy the rest of the balance sheet all the way to the end of the forecast period.

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