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P&C Insurance Modeling

Understand how to model and value P&C insurance companies.

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16 Lessons (62m)

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  • Description & Objectives

  • 1. Model Introduction

    01:31
  • 2. Earned Premiums

    02:53
  • 3. Claims Expense and Reinsurance

    02:52
  • 4. Rest of the Income Statement

    02:36
  • 5. Calculations

    03:48
  • 6. Historical Reserve Analysis

    02:30
  • 7. Historical Payout Analysis

    04:51
  • 8. Historical Claims Payout Schedule

    03:50
  • 9. Forecast Claims Payout Schedule

    04:51
  • 10. Gross Reported Claims BASE Calculation

    02:09
  • 11. Funding Side of the Balance Sheet

    04:33
  • 12. Asset Side of the Balance Sheet

    06:39
  • 13. Financial Returns and Expense

    06:23
  • 14. Discounted Dividend Model

    05:31
  • 15. Relative Valuation

    05:14
  • 16. P&C Insurance Model Tryout


Prev: Life Insurance Modeling

Financial Returns and Expense

  • Notes
  • Questions
  • Transcript
  • 06:23

Understand how to model interest income and expense for a property and casualty insurance company

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13.1-Financial-returns-and-expense-empty13.1-Financial-returns-and-expense

Glossary

Financial Modeling general insurance Insurance Interest Expense Interest Income P&C property and casualty
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Transcript

Now, we've pretty much finished the model. There's a couple of things that we need to do though, and that is calculate the investment return and also the costs of external financing. But before we do that, we may as well copy across the loss ratio the expense ratio to get the combined ratio. And you can see that during the forecast period. Now, in this model, we haven't put any kind of cycle, but normally, you would see a cycle to the combined ratio. So let's come down to the calculations and we're going to calculate the return on average cash first. And we have an assumption for that up in the assumption section, and it is the return on cash, that half percent there. And I'm gonna multiply that by the average of the cash balance on the balance sheet. And we'll come down all the way to the balance sheet. And I'm gonna take the average of cash. Now, you'll notice that just below cash is financial investments and investment property, and the order of the assumptions is in exactly the same order. So what I can then do is I can actually just copy these down and that saves us a little bit of time. You can do it individually but I'm saving time by just copying it down. So my total investment return is some of those three items. Let me just change the formatting of that cell. There we go. And then we've got some costs of financing. So we've got the interest expense on the subordinated loan. So I'm gonna come up to the assumptions here. And I've got the subordinated liabilities here and I'm gonna multiply that by the average of the balance sheet number. So let me go down to the balance sheet and I've got the subordinated liabilities, which is just at the top of the liabilities section. And I'm gonna multiply that and then times it by one, times it by minus one to make sure that it's negative. There we go. And then I've got the interest on the average borrowings. So I'm just gonna go up to the interest on the average borrowings as well and pick up the average borrowings interest, this borrowing amount. So I just need to get the cost of borrowed funds. So we go half a percent. So this is like a revolver. So I'm just gonna again take the average from the balance sheet. Go all the way down to the balance sheet. And then we've got that small amount of borrowings there. And again, multiply by minus one, and that will give me my total cost of the average borrowings. And then I'll sum up the financing costs. Now, there's one other item that I need to do. We got a tier one capital I line item down on the balance sheet, tier one notes. Now, those actually get a dividend. So this will go into my equity based calculation. So I'm gonna go into my equity based calculation and I've inserted a row for tier one dividends. So what I'm going to do is I'm gonna go and take the assumption. We have an assumption for the tier one dividends up here in row 24. And I'll multiply that by the average of the tier one balance. So I'm gonna go all the way down to the bottom of the balance sheet now. There we go. And again, multiply by minus one to make it negative. Now, we've got to just reorientate this because what we did first is we took the beginning balance to calculate the regular dividends, then we added net income and then we subtracted the ending balance. But what I should also do here is I should just add and I can add it because it's a negative number those tier one capital dividends. So this actually means in the first year, we need to put more money because we're not meeting our capital assumption there. So although it's a dividend line, that effectively is where the equity holders are putting money in. Now, if I copy this right to the next year and I copy the dividends right to the next year, you can see if I just undo that, they are paying less ordinary dividends because they've got these tier one dividends. And tier one is a separate capital item to the regular dividends. So I'm just gonna copy that across. And this is probably because the tax authorities are not allowing them to deduct the tier one capital items against tax. And then I'm going to just copy across the financial return and the finance costs.

to see a circular reference in a three step model, but in this case, we don't have that, because remember, the ending balance of equity is just an assumption. This doesn't actually link up to the balance sheet as it would normally in a corporate model. So then as my final flourish for the operating model, I'll take the total investment return and I'm gonna wire that in the 159. And then in installment income, we haven't done yet, and we didn't do because we didn't have a balance sheet. So I'll go up to the assumption for the installment income, which would be towards the top. And then we go, it's the percentage of the average receivables. So I'm just going to take that times the average of the receivables, and I'm gonna go all the way down to the balance sheet, going to the asset side. There we go. The receivables. And we get that installment income there. So I'm gonna copy that across. And notice, so I've not got a circularity, which is what you normally expect in a three step model. And then the finance costs. I'm just going to go and pick up the finance costs. There we go. And the total finance cost is 22.1. And I'll copy that across. And there we have the three statement model done. No circularity. And the reason of the circularity is because the ending balance of equity is just a hardwired assumption based on our tier one capital requirement. So if I just zoom out, that in its simplest form is a fairly straightforward model for a property and casualty insurance company.

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