Historical Payout Analysis
- 04:51
Understand how to analyse the payout of historical reserves
Transcript
So now we're going to do the historical claims analysis. And we've got the payout estimated pattern over 11-year period. And the reason we've got an 11-year period is we're just working with the historical payout pattern. And because it's historical, in every historical year they would've already had year one's payout. So the first thing we're going to do is we need to establish what the percentage of the original estimate is still there to be paid out. So for the year 10 historical policies, you would expect because year one of the year 10, it's a historical policy, would have been paid out. Actually, it's just the rump of the policy, which is the year 11 payout. So we'd expect 2% of the total estimated claims from year 10 still remaining to be paid. Then for year nine, what we're going to do is we're going to take the year 10 remaining amount and then we'll just add to that the year 10 payout, because remember, this is what is remaining. And for year nine, assuming 11-year payout pattern, we would have two years of further payouts. So in year eight, we'll take the year nine, and then we'll add the third year payout.
And I'm just going to continue with this and speed up for you.
So let me just explain this again because this is quite a difficult concept. What we need to do is we need to establish what is the remaining percentage left to pay out. So the policies written 10 years ago, assuming a total payout pattern of 11 years, only 2% left. A policy written nine years ago, assuming 11-year payout pattern is just going to be 5% left. A policy written eight years ago is going to have three years of payments left, so that will give us a total of 8%, and et cetera, and et cetera, and et cetera. So what this means is that is what is the percentage of the original left to pay out. Now, we can take the current amount because if I go back to the year 10 number here, the total estimate was 3,595.1. If I subtract the cumulative payments made, that is the remaining amount to be paid out in pound sterling. And then I can do that for each year. So in year nine, I can take the total estimate minus the cumulative payments to date, and that's what's remaining. And I'm just going to quickly do this and I'll speed up to do this.
So this is just a breakdown of all the historical claims. And we would normally expect the biggest claims remaining to be paid from year one and it dribbling out smaller and smaller, and you do see that. But remember we've got this slightly strange, really old historical years and it sounds, or looks like there was some divestitures there. Now, what we can do is we can estimate the original amount just by grossing up what the current amount is left. So I can take the current amount divided by 2% and that's our estimate of what is left originally. Now unfortunately, this is not going to be exactly equal to the numbers above, but it does mean that what we will do is we will completely repay any historical reserves. We won't have any tail left. And this is kind of functionally, the easiest way of doing it. So what we're going to do in the projected years is we are going to literally just forecast out the remaining payments of what we're estimating to be left in this column here over the projected period. So for the year 10 estimated claim, all that should be paid out within year one, et cetera.