Forecast Claims Payout Schedule
- 04:51
Understand how to model the payout of forecast reserves
Transcript
Now for the new claims payout, what we need to do is we need to first put in all the future claims expense that we're projecting from 2019 all the way to, in this case, 2028. And we have that already because that's gonna come from the income statements. So, what I'm gonna do first is I'm just going to forecast the base calculations that I have pre-built to the end of the forecast period cuz we actually do need to have the forecast numbers in. And then I'm going to go down to the income statement and I'm gonna forecast that as well because we kind of need to have the income statement numbers in order to actually do this. So, I'm gonna go all the way down to the bottom of the income statement and project that across to the end of the forecast period. So we have our claims expense down at the bottom here. And what we want to do is we want to take the gross insurance claims. The reason we want to take the gross insurance claims is because the balance sheet is 100%. So, it includes the reinsurers share. So it's going to be picking up this line, this 125 line and we're going to pick up these line items along here. Now what I want to do is pull in the claims, the projected claims expense for the years 2019 through to 2028. And I'm gonna be use a formula called a transposed formula. Now be careful with this because it does make the model less flexible because you can't insert rows within the transpose area. So, if I do equals transpose, open parenthesis, and then I'm gonna go down to the income statement and I'm gonna go and get the gross insurance claims in the first projected year and then shift right arrow all the way to the very end close, parenthesis, and then hit Control Shift, Enter. And you can see here what that has done is it's pulled in all the numbers from below from a row into a column. Now the only problem is, is that it's negative. So, I'm just gonna put a minus sign in front of that and then do Control Shift, Enter. And there we go. It's come in as a positive number because we want those items in as positive numbers to do the payout. So this is the original expense here that we're going to use. Now this is fairly straightforward because we just need to build out the payout pattern. And for the 2019 payout, I'll make sure I absolutely reference that. I'm gonna multiply that by the first payout, which is the 49%, hit Enter. And then what I'm going to do is I'm gonna copy that all the way across for the forecast period. And that is my payout pattern, my estimated payout pattern of that 1870. And if I just sum that up, you can see it's not quite all of it because we've only got a 10-year forecast and our payout pattern is over 11 years now for the 2020, of course, we don't have anything in 2019. So, I'm actually gonna start in the 2020 column. Do equals, go and pick up the expense absolute reference that multiply again, we're going to go back to the year one assumption that 49%, which is the year one, hit Enter. And then I'll copy that all the way to the end of the forecast. Now you can start to see that this is going to build a triangle, which neatly fits in to the historical claims because the new claims are effectively replacing the old claims. And then I'm gonna go down, I'll just do one more and I'll take the 2021 absolute reference that and I'm gonna multiply that again by the year one payout because that's the first payout of that year, which is the 49%. And then I'll copy that right to the end of the forecast period. And I'm just gonna go and finish this now, just doing each forecast year in turn.
And that gives us the total forecast claims payout. And I'm going to do a little sum at the bottom here now.
Just to sum that up over the forecast period. And that's the forecast claims.