Combined Ratio Over Time Graph Workout
- 03:39
Understand how the combined ratio changes over time
Transcript
So in this case, we've gotta work out where we want to calculate a graph for roll center lines. And we're going to compare the combined operating ratio with the return on invested capital. I'm gonna select the data first, insert a chart, comes up with a line chart, which is what I want. And then we've got two lines, the combined operating ratio here and then the return on invested capital here. I'm gonna pop the return on invested capital onto a secondary axis.
There we go. And that makes much more sense. Let me put some labels in here for you just so you can see and understand what's going on. So on this axis, on the left hand side, we've got a combined operating ratio as a percentage and then on this axis, on the secondary axis, we have got the return on investor capital which is reflecting the financial return. So that's return investor capital as a percentage as well. So, let's analyze the data. When the combined ratio is above a hundred percent it means that your expenses, which is your claims expense and your general operational expenses added together, it means that you are making an underwriting loss. So you can see the company's making an underwriting loss in '05, and it's also making an underwriting loss in 2013. When the return on invested capital is above zero, as you can see here, it's making a financial profit. So it's making financial profit and then it dips dramatically in 2013 when it's making financial losses. So, here, there's a perfect storm. You can see in 2013 where they're making an underwriting loss, here, and they are making a negative return on their financial assets. That's just a dreadful year. But after that dreadful year, you can start to see that the combined operating ratio starts to drop pretty dramatically, and that's because the insurance market will start to reprice the risk and they will charge more for taking on that risk. And you can see they quite quickly move towards underwriting profits. So the combined operating ratio comes down to just north of 95%. So they're making a 5% underwriting profit on the premium. But at the same time, you're starting to see the financial returns. And so you often see this repricing. And as you can see, there's a little bit of a lag here. There's repricing, and then slowly the financial returns are agreeing. So, at this point, where we've got in 2016 we are making a combined operating ratio profit, an underwriting profit, and we're making a small financial return. That wouldn't be such a bad year. But if you come back here in '05, '06, '07, you can see we've got an underwriting profit and really strong financial returns. So they're making money like bandits in this phase. But you will see often a cycle where financial returns go up the underwriting profits decrease because they're subsidized by the financial returns. But these cycles don't necessarily move in exactly the same phases, sometimes there's a lag. Often what happens is you get underwriting losses and it takes time for the insurance to reprice when their financial returns have started to fall. But you get sense here of how returns on financial assets change and the combined operating ratio and underwriting profits change over a cycle.