Simple P&C Model
- 03:27
Understand how to build a very simple P&C model including and income statement and balance sheet
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Transcript
Let's take a look at a simple model of property and casualty company, and we're gonna model out the income statement and balance sheet. We've got some assumptions and the assumptions are shown in blue. You've got a premium of 100 and then we're assuming a claims ratio of 80%, which will drive the claims expense, 80% of the 100, and we've got an expense ratio of 20, which will drive the expenses, 20% of 100. Then we calculate an underwriting profit, which in this case is zero. So the company isn't making any underwriting profits. Now, at this point, we wouldn't be able to calculate the financial income 'cause we haven't done a balance sheet yet, but we could calculate the profitable tax and calculate tax based on the tax rate assumed here. Once we've got all that, then what we can do is we can look at the balance sheet. And typically what we would do is start with some assumptions about the reserves and the equity. And the reserves are driven by this assumption here, the 194.5. So we expect the reserve liability to be around about double the premiums earned during the year. And that's because the reserves represent not just this year's claims expense that are gonna be paid out, but multiple years. And that's where this 194 number is coming from. The second thing that we've got is an equity assumption and the equity will typically be driven by regulatory requirements. And we've made a simplistic assumption that it's going to be 65.7% of premiums. So this number here is just the assumption of the equity premiums ratio, or assumption multiplied by the premiums earned. So on the balance sheet, we now have the total liabilities and equity made up of the reserves and equity, and this means we can plug the invested assets and they just equal the total liabilities and equity. In other words, we're investing money which is financed partly by the policy holders premiums and partly by our own shareholders money. Then once you've got that, you can then calculate the financial income of the 260. And that will be driven by the kind of assets and their performance that the company is investing in. So in summary, in this simple model, we have some assumptions. The claims ratio of 80%, expense ratio of 20%, a combined ratio of 100%. So it means there's no underwriting profit, so all the profits have gotta come from the investment return. We've linked the amount of the balance sheet reserves to the premiums, and we've linked the regulatory equity to the premiums as well. So we've got the funding side of the balance sheet. And then we have plugged the balance sheet to the invested assets. Once we've got the invested assets, we can calculate the return on the invested assets that goes into the income statement, and that will generate a net income. The final component is to calculate the return on equity. And that's just the net income of 8.3 divided by the balance sheet equity of 65.7. And that's a very important performance metric for insurance companies because it also correlates to the price to book value multiple. So the higher return on equity you have, the larger your price to book value multiple, in other words, your valuation. And it's a key metric that insurance companies will be tracked by.