Incurred But Not Reported Workout
- 03:04
Understand how incurred but not reported reserves (IBNR) are calculated and modeled
Transcript
So in this workout, we are going to model out the incurred but not reported and the outstanding claims reserves. It's first important to note that in many companies these two line items, the incurred but not reported and the outstanding claims reserves are merged into one. But in this case, we're going to assume that there are two separate accounts. Let's start by calculating the earned premiums and that's just the sum of the written premiums and the change in the unearned premium reserve. We've got a claims expense ratio here of 76%. So we'll assume the claims expense is going to be 76% of the earned premiums giving us 68.4 million. Now for the incur but not reported, let's just talk about the difference between this and the outstanding claims reserve. When a company writes a policy, a company has to make an estimate of the claims it expects to happen once it's earned the premiums. Now, initially, they won't know about the potential claims. They'll just have to make an estimate and that's where it goes in the incurred but not reported. So when they expense it, it first goes to IBNR and then when the claims actually come through from the policy holders and a risk assessment can be made of them, they then go into the actual claims reserves. Now, from a function and economic point of view, the claims reserve are really these two items added together which is why many companies add them together as a matter of course. But the 65 is an estimate and the 170 is based on a loss adjustment where the estimated claim has been assessed. So in this case, the incurred but not reported starts with the ending balance of the prior year, the 65, and then we'll add the claims expense to that account item. But, of course, during the year, you'd expect some of those claims that have been sitting in the incurred but not reported to actually become reported. So they will be loss assessed and that 66 will then move into the outstanding claims reserves. But before I do that, I'm going to sum up the incurred but not reported and that will give me my ending balance. And for the outstanding claim reserves the beginning balance is going to equal the ending balance of the prior year, and the claims reported are going to come out of the incurred but not reported and into the outstanding claims reserves. And then when they get paid, they will reduce the outstanding claims reserves. So I'll sum that base calculation up and the total reserves are going to be the incurred but not reported plus the outstanding claims reserves. Now, in many companies, you will probably just see one line item called the total reserves, but in some situations you will see that split out into the incurred but not reported, the estimated claims, and claims which have actually been notified to the insurance company and they have been loss assessed.