Forecast Payout Diagram Workout
- 03:04
Understand how to model out the payout of the forecast claims reserves for a property and casualty insurance company
Transcript
So here we're going to project the forecast claims expense, and we're taking the historical number, and multiplying it by a growth rate of 4%. So we'll just copy that across the forecast. But once we've forecast the claims expense going forward which is easy to do, we now need to calculate the payout of each year's claims expense. So in the forecast year one, which is the 7,276.9 number we're going to project this payment going forward. So we'll take the expense in year one, absolute reference it, and then I'm gonna multiply it by the first year's payout. And this payout pattern that we've got here, you can see it's over a 10 year period. So this 7,276 number is gonna be paid out steadily over 10 years. And if I just copy that right, you'll see that over time it will get paid out. But the amount gets smaller and smaller, because in the later years, the payments are always smaller than in the first year, because the majority of claims get paid out in the first year. So the sum of that, just to show you, is equal to that claims expense in year one. And that's the payout pattern. Now in year two, what we're going to do is we're going take the year two claims expense, and again we're going to multiply it, but again, we need to go back to the first year assumption of the payout, which is 53.9%. And then I'll copy that out. But I'm not going to copy it out more than to year 10, which means we'll get nine years of the payments, and then I'm going to continue and go through the rest of the forecast period, absolute referencing, and always starting with that first 53.9%. So let me just finish this off. (no audio) (no audio) So you can see here we've built a full triangle of all the payout of the different years' claims expense. And I'm going to sum up the total payment each year in the forecast period. Copy this right, and you'll notice the payout amount gets larger and larger. And the reason for this is that we're getting more, and more claims expense building up over time. Remember, of course, the historical claims expense that's being paid out is getting smaller and smaller. So what happens is that these two offset each other. The historical claims expense payout starts very large, and then slowly declines. The forecast claims expense payout starts smaller and grows. And so in total, if you forecast that in a model, you'll often find that the payout stays fairly constant over time.