Simple P&C Model Workout
- 03:53
Understand how to build a very simple P&C model including and income statement and balance sheet
Transcript
So, in this workout, we need to create a small income statement and balance sheet for an insurance company. We've got a series of assumptions here. First, a claims ratio of 75%, an expense ratio of 21%, and if I add these two together, we can see that we have a combined ratio of 96%. That means that the costs are 96% of the premiums, which means that we're making a small underwriting profit here. The tax rate is 20%. Equity over premiums is 65%. Reserves over premiums is 194% because the reserves won't just reflect the claims from this year's policies, but from prior years' policies, and we have a return on financial assets of 4%. So, we're gonna do the income statement first. We've got a set assumption for premiums of 200, so the claims expense is going to be the 75% assumption multiplied by the premiums, and I'm going to make that negative by multiplying by -1. And then I'll get the expenses, which is going to be the expense ratio multiplied by the premiums, again, times -1 to make that negative, and then I'll sum that up, and I'll get the underwriting profit of eight. Now, I can't do the financial income yet because I haven't done the balance sheet, so I'm gonna leave that blank, but I'm still going to add through when I calculate the profit before tax. Then I'll calculate the tax, which is the tax rate of 20% times profit before tax times -1, and then I'll calculate net income, which is just the addition of those two, the profit before tax and tax. Now, I can't calculate the return on equity yet because I haven't done the balance sheet, so that's next. Now, the way this mechanically works is that we have accepted these premiums from customers, as the insurance company, and we pay them out slowly. So, the first item I'm going to do is the reserves. So, I'm gonna take the assumption for the reserves over premiums and multiply that by the premium amount in that year, and the reserves are larger, 388, because they reflect not just this year's claims expense, but multiple years' claims expense. And then we've got the equity amount, and the equity is, again, linked to premiums, and that's because those will be regulatory minimums that you have to have in order to write those premiums. And, usually, most insurance companies will be significantly ahead of the regulatory minimums, but normally, when they forecast things, will calculate the amount of equity based on the percentage of premiums earned. So, I've got the equity number there of 131, and that means I can sum up the funding side of the balance sheet. It's a combination of these shareholders' funds and the claims that haven't been paid out yet to policyholders. So, the invested assets is just the sum of the funding, both from the policyholders in the form of claims that are not paid out plus shareholders in the form of equity, and then I can sum it up to get the total assets to just one number. The balance sheet balances, and now I can calculate the financial income because I'll take the return on the invested assets multiplied by the amount of the invested assets of 520, and that flows through to the income statement, and we get returns of 23.1 as net income. But because there's a strong link between the return on equity and the price-to-book value, I will calculate the return on equity by taking the net income number and divide it by the equity amount on the balance sheet, and that gives us a pretty nice return on equity for this company of 17.5%.