So in this workout, we've got the disclosure from Aviva in 2009 about the payout of their premiums. And you can see here that the payout is the cumulative payout and it grows steadily over time. So these are rule related to premiums in 2009. And it just gives us the pattern of payout of those premiums that were accepted in 2009. So in the first accident year they paid out 3,780.

The next year, one year later the cumulative payout was 5,464. So if we just take the difference between that number and the 3,780, that will give the incremental payout in that second year, or the year after the policy year. And then if we want to continue we need to take the cumulative payout minus the prior year's cumulative payout. And you can see, once I've done that I can then copy this down all the way to nine years later after the accident here. And you can see, as you'd expect, the payout is getting smaller and smaller and smaller. So let me explain. This is a single year's premium payout pattern of the actual claims expense payout. And most of the payout happens in the accident year, probably because most of the claims are just things like motorcars or burglaries, and it's quite quickly and easy to pay out. But some of the claims will be healthcare. And healthcare often has tail costs. In other words, you have a back problem and you have many years of treatment. And that's why we've got this quite long tail even though the insurance policy only lasted one year. Now, it doesn't completely add up because you've got a remaining stub here. So the total estimated claims that they expect in total is 7,227. But nine years later they've still only paid out 7,100. So you get this kind of stub remaining. But this is helpful because you can use this in your forecasting. So I'm gonna take the amount paid out in the accident year and I'm gonna divide it by the total estimated claims. I'll absolutely reference that, make that a percentage. And then what I'm going to do is I'm just going to copy this down. And this will kind of give us a payout pattern for the policy. It doesn't completely do 100%. You can see if I just sum that up, it's only 98.2%. And the reason is because we've got this stub that is remaining. So sometimes you have to kind of fudge the figures a little bit, but it's a nice description of the tail. But you can see the vast majority is paid out in the first two years.