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Chemicals - Analysis and Modeling

What makes chemical companies distinct from other sectors, and applies a range of sector-specific techniques.

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30 Lessons (120m)

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  • Description & Objectives

  • 1. Chemical Sector Players

    02:35
  • 2. What Makes Chemical Companies Special

    01:30
  • 3. Scale of Chemicals Companies - Examples

    01:53
  • 4. Oversupply Problems in the Chemical Sector

    01:46
  • 5. Commodity Prices

    02:02
  • 6. Segmental Analysis

    03:53
  • 7. Segmental Analysis Workout

    12:23
  • 8. Sum of the Parts Valuation

    02:27
  • 9. Sum of the Parts Workout

    01:49
  • 10. Pensions in the Chemical Sector

    02:04
  • 11. Analyzing Chemical Companies

    01:50
  • 12. Case Study Company AkzoNobel

    02:23
  • 13. Chemicals Model - Model Intro

    03:05
  • 14. Chemicals Model - Company and Segment Intro

    02:04
  • 15. Chemicals Model - Segmental Forecasting and Bridges Discussion

    05:25
  • 16. Chemicals Model - Paint Segment Revenue

    03:32
  • 17. Chemicals Model - Paint Segment EBIT Margin

    08:15
  • 18. Chemicals Model - Performance Segment Bridges and Corporate

    07:14
  • 19. Chemicals Model - Operating Model Intro

    03:50
  • 20. Chemicals Model - Operating Model Subtotals

    04:39
  • 21. Chemicals Model - Profit and Loss

    03:14
  • 22. Chemicals Model - BASE Calculations

    05:03
  • 23. Chemicals Model - Balance Sheet

    04:56
  • 24. Chemicals Model - Cashflow Statement

    06:10
  • 25. Chemicals Model - Interest and Circularity

    05:43
  • 26. Chemicals Model - Completing the Model

    03:46
  • 27. Chemicals Model - Model Metrics

    05:59
  • 28. Chemicals Model - Sum of the Parts EV

    03:42
  • 29. Chemicals Model - Sum of the Parts Complete

    05:37
  • 30. Chemicals Tryout

Sum of the Parts Valuation

  • Notes
  • Questions
  • Transcript
  • 02:27

A different approach to valuation which works better for diversified segments.

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Chemicals Sum of the parts Valuation
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Transcript

This is called a sum of the parts valuation.

Because each segment is so distinct, creating an overall valuation for the company is difficult and can be inaccurate.

It's common to do a sum of the parts.

The idea of this approach is to perform a separate valuation on each major part of the business using a separate methodology.

You could theoretically use A-D-C-F-A discounted cash flow for one part, a trading comparable for another, a replacement cost for another, and so on.

In practice, multiples based approaches are most common.

Here you can see the valuation of Chase Core, an American diversified chemical player.

This is being done by an advisor to KKR, A large private equity player.

The advisor has got segmental reporting and created a forward EBITDA for each of the three segments.

It's uses experience in each sub-sector to come up with target multiples for each segment.

Notice that tapes is trading much lower than sealants.

It may be that tapes as an industry is not high margin or growth.

It's this detail that would be lost if you did one overall multiple for Chase.

It would also mean you'd need to come up with a comparable company, which has the same split of sealant tape and protection sales as Chase, which is a very difficult prospect.

Once the three EVs are created, the bridge can be crossed and an overall valuation for Chase can be made in this case, around $109 per share.

Chase's segments are all in the specialty area of the chemicals industry, so it's less likely a big conglomerate discount would be used.

A conglomerate discount would be necessary if the company were operating in really distinct segments that don't synergize very well.

For example, DAO works in commodity and specialty chemicals, which have very different production processes.

If this were the case, you could see a discount of, for example, 15% applied, although that could also be represented in the multiples.

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