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Chemicals - Analysis and Modeling

What makes chemical companies distinct from other sectors, and applies a range of sector-specific techniques.

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30 Lessons (120m)

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  • Description & Objectives

  • 1. Chemical Sector Players

    02:35
  • 2. What Makes Chemical Companies Special

    01:30
  • 3. Scale of Chemicals Companies - Examples

    01:53
  • 4. Oversupply Problems in the Chemical Sector

    01:46
  • 5. Commodity Prices

    02:02
  • 6. Segmental Analysis

    03:53
  • 7. Segmental Analysis Workout

    12:23
  • 8. Sum of the Parts Valuation

    02:27
  • 9. Sum of the Parts Workout

    01:49
  • 10. Pensions in the Chemical Sector

    02:04
  • 11. Analyzing Chemical Companies

    01:50
  • 12. Case Study Company AkzoNobel

    02:23
  • 13. Chemicals Model - Model Intro

    03:05
  • 14. Chemicals Model - Company and Segment Intro

    02:04
  • 15. Chemicals Model - Segmental Forecasting and Bridges Discussion

    05:25
  • 16. Chemicals Model - Paint Segment Revenue

    03:32
  • 17. Chemicals Model - Paint Segment EBIT Margin

    08:15
  • 18. Chemicals Model - Performance Segment Bridges and Corporate

    07:14
  • 19. Chemicals Model - Operating Model Intro

    03:50
  • 20. Chemicals Model - Operating Model Subtotals

    04:39
  • 21. Chemicals Model - Profit and Loss

    03:14
  • 22. Chemicals Model - BASE Calculations

    05:03
  • 23. Chemicals Model - Balance Sheet

    04:56
  • 24. Chemicals Model - Cashflow Statement

    06:10
  • 25. Chemicals Model - Interest and Circularity

    05:43
  • 26. Chemicals Model - Completing the Model

    03:46
  • 27. Chemicals Model - Model Metrics

    05:59
  • 28. Chemicals Model - Sum of the Parts EV

    03:42
  • 29. Chemicals Model - Sum of the Parts Complete

    05:37
  • 30. Chemicals Tryout

Chemicals Model - Profit and Loss

  • Notes
  • Questions
  • Transcript
  • 03:14

Creating the profit and loss statement.

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Transcript

In most operating models, the revenue would be built up from an overall revenue growth.

It's the level of detail that we do not want in Axo.

We've spent a considerable amount of time in the segments figuring out what the revenue is going to be in 2024 because of the revenue bridges of the segments that we forecast.

So let's use that detail.

Similarly, we've spent a lot of time doing EBIT bridges in the segments to figure out what the EBIT will be in 2024.

Let's use that detail.

We are not ready to do interest expense yet.

For that, we will need debt and cashflow.

We'll highlight these two rows as something to come back to for other income.

We'll go and have a look at the assumptions.

You can see that, as we said before, this is going to be a percentage of revenues and is perhaps based more on equity affiliate income than the slightly swingy historical income in that line, which would be things like derivatives.

The non-reoccurring items will almost certainly be zero in the future.

We would not normally forecast non-recurring items unless we're very confident about them. Something like a restructuring program.

Now, like I said earlier, there is an argument that there is an ongoing restructuring program and that that should be in this line, but we've dealt with that separately in the segmental tab here, what we're going to do is find the accompanying line, and you can see that we have a bunch of zeros there.

This gives us our profit before tax to be taxed.

So now we need to be careful about which tax rate to take.

We have two tax rates available.

Previously, we've used the MTR when we were modeling our non-recurring income impact.

Now we're going to use ETR because we are modeling an entire company's worth of profits.

We're going to take that and times it by the profit for tax.

It's already negative in the assumption, so we don't need to flip the sign there.

And there we have our earnings.

You can see they're very high, which would uh, alert us perhaps to an error, but there are several items missing, principally the interest expense, similar to non-recurring, the earnings from its continued operations have been set to zero. Going forward. We now have the p and l complete barring two lines, which we'll need to come back to later.

We can now supplement the p and l with our EPS and then we'll have to wait until we've got ebitda, until we've hooked up back with the segmental reporting, the first thing to figure out is the dividends per share.

Now, recall that they are a growth factor.

We discussed the fact that they're going to flatline for a while and that will be relative to last year.

The basic and diluted SSO are given and could be copied down.

And then because we already populated the recurring diluted EPS, that has calculated itself and that looks suspiciously high.

But remember that our p and l isn't quite complete because of the missing interest lines.

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