Let's start modeling the decorative paint segment.

Our first job is to realize that organic revenue growth will be the addition of volume and price.

You can then pull that to the right.

You can see that historically the organic revenue growth isn't the total growth of that segment, the reported revenue growth.

What this represents is non-organic factors such as Forex, and in the case of 2022 acquisitions, you can see that Axo made some very large acquisitions at quite a difficult time, and this may have contributed to some of the current troubles that they're experiencing.

We'll see later in the model that they leave it up quite a lot in 2022.

Now, going forward, we are not going to forecast any non-organic growth.

We won't forecast any m and a and we won't forecast any FX changes.

What would probably happen in one of these models is that number one, it would probably be quarterly, but we decided to make it yearly here to reduce the number of columns and detail, and that as the quarters progress and things become clearer, perhaps it would be updated in a quarterly fashion and things like m and a and FX would be updated.

Along the way, you can see that we have anticipated growth of 1%.

Now that will be 1% higher than last year.

We can then pull that to the right which mechanically works, and then think about what's happening because Axo is going to raise its price in Europe, which is its biggest market that's going to have a good effect on the price.

It's however, going to lose volumes in Europe, which is not surprising 'cause of elasticity.

It's going to do rather well in latam.

Okay, it's doing very well over in Latin America, but that doesn't contribute very much to this volume growth and China is generally pulling us down, so we'll have a poor effect on both.

In reality, in Ax O's segmental reporting, this comment would actually be represented by individual subsegments.

So for example, in Ax O'S reporting under decorative paint, you could, if you wanted to try and find information about the volume growth in the EU in China and the tam.

And so if you wanted to, you could create further detail if that was desirable and create many more segmental lines or blocks such as these.

Now you might be wondering how you come up with these forecasts.

As mentioned before, beyond year one, it would probably be quite difficult because the chemicals Industry is relatively volatile.

You would want to try and get a hold of lots of research, read the company's reports, and become aware of current events.

So for example, in 2023 or late in 20 23, 1 of Ax o's most important customers in the UK home base, which is a DIY and garden store, uh, went into administration, which means it effectively went out of business.

And that would contribute to your view that volumes would be poor in the eu because the UK is one of its important markets. There.