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Chemicals - Analysis and Modeling

What makes chemical companies distinct from other sectors, and applies a range of sector-specific techniques.

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30 Lessons (120m)

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  • Description & Objectives

  • 1. Chemical Sector Players

    02:35
  • 2. What Makes Chemical Companies Special

    01:30
  • 3. Scale of Chemicals Companies - Examples

    01:53
  • 4. Oversupply Problems in the Chemical Sector

    01:46
  • 5. Commodity Prices

    02:02
  • 6. Segmental Analysis

    03:53
  • 7. Segmental Analysis Workout

    12:23
  • 8. Sum of the Parts Valuation

    02:27
  • 9. Sum of the Parts Workout

    01:49
  • 10. Pensions in the Chemical Sector

    02:04
  • 11. Analyzing Chemical Companies

    01:50
  • 12. Case Study Company AkzoNobel

    02:23
  • 13. Chemicals Model - Model Intro

    03:05
  • 14. Chemicals Model - Company and Segment Intro

    02:04
  • 15. Chemicals Model - Segmental Forecasting and Bridges Discussion

    05:25
  • 16. Chemicals Model - Paint Segment Revenue

    03:32
  • 17. Chemicals Model - Paint Segment EBIT Margin

    08:15
  • 18. Chemicals Model - Performance Segment Bridges and Corporate

    07:14
  • 19. Chemicals Model - Operating Model Intro

    03:50
  • 20. Chemicals Model - Operating Model Subtotals

    04:39
  • 21. Chemicals Model - Profit and Loss

    03:14
  • 22. Chemicals Model - BASE Calculations

    05:03
  • 23. Chemicals Model - Balance Sheet

    04:56
  • 24. Chemicals Model - Cashflow Statement

    06:10
  • 25. Chemicals Model - Interest and Circularity

    05:43
  • 26. Chemicals Model - Completing the Model

    03:46
  • 27. Chemicals Model - Model Metrics

    05:59
  • 28. Chemicals Model - Sum of the Parts EV

    03:42
  • 29. Chemicals Model - Sum of the Parts Complete

    05:37
  • 30. Chemicals Tryout

Chemicals Model - Balance Sheet

  • Notes
  • Questions
  • Transcript
  • 04:56

Preparing the balance sheet.

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Transcript

We're now ready to do the balance sheet.

You'll immediately see there are two highlighted rows here, being cash and short-term debt.

We're going to defer those until after we do the cash flow statement because we are not going to know the state of cash in Axo until we do the cash flow statement.

We'll busy ourselves doing the rest of the rows, which we can do.

Firstly, let's do the OWC receivables.

We'll find that they've got 88 days of a year worth of a year's worth of activity, most linked to receivables being revenue, and that leads to the receivables in the year.

It's always worth having a bit of a sense check with modest growth, and if the days stay relatively equal, you should see modest growth in the receivables as well.

Inventories has the same approach, so we go and find the days note that they're already negative.

We find that they're a proportion of the year, and we apply them to the p and l, which is most linked to them, which in this case would be operating expenses.

We'd love to do that for cost of sales or even better purchases, but we don't have that level of information.

So the best thing we can do is operating expenses.

The two negatives cancel each other out and it means that this is a ready to go figure.

Other current assets are given as a figure up in the assumptions.

It's just a question of finding them.

We then have total current assets and for some reason I've lost the total there, so I'll just regenerate it.

And now we're onto non-current PP and E. We already have from our base, long-term investments do need to be queried a little and so we'll find they're up in the assumption. There's now a change figure, and so you would add that to the previous year.

Goodwill tends to be flatlined in models like this, and that's because we would not really be predicting any significant m and a activity, and so we wouldn't even normally see an assumption there.

We would just tend to see it referring to the cell on the left.

Other intangibles we have from our work and the basis and other long-term assets we have as a flat figure here you can see now we've got total assets.

We're going to skip the short term debt because we're going to uh, model it after the cash flow statement as a bit of a cash sweep, and we're now onto current operating liabilities.

Now, perhaps because these are significant or maybe we have better information, these do have a percentage of revenue saying they've got better information.

The forecast is going to be flatlined, so perhaps it's placeholder until we get better information. Now it's going to be A percentage of revenues.

It's being cut off there, but it's a percentage of revenues.

We then do a bit of a uh, sense check. That does look like a jump, so we would check two things.

Firstly, we would check that we have read that assumption, right, and we haven't.

It's operating costs.

This is a good learning point to be careful and also to check as you go, and that a core checking technique is to look left to right and see if there are jumps.

Given this business is growing gently in 2024, you wouldn't expect such a big jump that's so out of line with the jump that's in receivables, and so that was a genuine error of mine, but it's also quite a nice learning point.

So let's regenerate that.

We've got our 34.5% and now you can perhaps also see why it's negative.

That's because we're going to attach it to operating expenses and now you can see that gentle increase that we're looking for long term debt.

Next, you may recall that long-term debt is described in the assumptions as a borrowing slash repayment schedule, so in 2024 they're borrowing a significant amount and then their repayment schedule is described in the years that follow.

This will mean that we'll modify the last year.

We then got other non-current liabilities.

These are described as a percent of revenues and I can actually see the word revenue now, so no errors this time, and so we will attach these to revenue and you can see again that reasonable as check makes sense, the equity we can go and grab from our final base, and then you can see we have an imbalance, but it's not particularly worrying because we know that the cash flow statement, if we've done our job properly, we'll link everything up and the imbalance will disappear.

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