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Chemicals - Analysis and Modeling

What makes chemical companies distinct from other sectors, and applies a range of sector-specific techniques.

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30 Lessons (120m)

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  • Description & Objectives

  • 1. Chemical Sector Players

    02:35
  • 2. What Makes Chemical Companies Special

    01:30
  • 3. Scale of Chemicals Companies - Examples

    01:53
  • 4. Oversupply Problems in the Chemical Sector

    01:46
  • 5. Commodity Prices

    02:02
  • 6. Segmental Analysis

    03:53
  • 7. Segmental Analysis Workout

    12:23
  • 8. Sum of the Parts Valuation

    02:27
  • 9. Sum of the Parts Workout

    01:49
  • 10. Pensions in the Chemical Sector

    02:04
  • 11. Analyzing Chemical Companies

    01:50
  • 12. Case Study Company AkzoNobel

    02:23
  • 13. Chemicals Model - Model Intro

    03:05
  • 14. Chemicals Model - Company and Segment Intro

    02:04
  • 15. Chemicals Model - Segmental Forecasting and Bridges Discussion

    05:25
  • 16. Chemicals Model - Paint Segment Revenue

    03:32
  • 17. Chemicals Model - Paint Segment EBIT Margin

    08:15
  • 18. Chemicals Model - Performance Segment Bridges and Corporate

    07:14
  • 19. Chemicals Model - Operating Model Intro

    03:50
  • 20. Chemicals Model - Operating Model Subtotals

    04:39
  • 21. Chemicals Model - Profit and Loss

    03:14
  • 22. Chemicals Model - BASE Calculations

    05:03
  • 23. Chemicals Model - Balance Sheet

    04:56
  • 24. Chemicals Model - Cashflow Statement

    06:10
  • 25. Chemicals Model - Interest and Circularity

    05:43
  • 26. Chemicals Model - Completing the Model

    03:46
  • 27. Chemicals Model - Model Metrics

    05:59
  • 28. Chemicals Model - Sum of the Parts EV

    03:42
  • 29. Chemicals Model - Sum of the Parts Complete

    05:37
  • 30. Chemicals Tryout

Chemicals Model - Operating Model Subtotals

  • Notes
  • Questions
  • Transcript
  • 04:39

Preparing the model for calculation.

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Transcript

The first step is to get the historical subtitles working.

You can see here we've got operating expenses.

That's not exactly a subtotal, but we do need it, so we need to find the difference between these two figures and express it as a negative.

We'll copy that one to the right of where you'd expect, because eventually we'll be modeling into the first year and then copying the entire first year across to the last year.

Now, having done operating expenses, you may notice that the inventory days, which was previously broken, has started to work and that will help you to realize that the inventory days is needed or needs these operating expenses.

You can see then that we go through to EBIT and then to earnings before tax or profit before tax.

We'll add up carefully, not double counting, and then again, copy to the right.

We'll do that again, which I've just fast forwarded a little for earnings from continuing and then net income.

And then we've got our next line, which is a bit tricky, which is recurring net income.

The starting point here is just a net income and in a simple business they would be the same.

However, the recurring net income, which you're gonna want for certain metrics will want to strip out the earnings of discontinued or add them back in if their losses, they're already post-tax.

So don't need any modification modific. But we'll also want to strip out the non-recurring items.

Now, given that the non-recurring items are before the tax line, we'll then need to make them post tax and we'll need to be careful about that.

We've got two tax rates to choose from the effective tax rate, which is the tax rate on all business income and the marginal tax rate, which you could define as the tax rate on the next dollar, or in this case, euro of income.

The marginal tax rate is more appropriate here, and what I need to do is make it one and then carefully think Normally it would be minus if the tax rate was a positive.

Now it's plus given that the tax rate is a negative and let's hit enter there.

And what we've got there is our recurring net income, and the idea is that it adds back any kind of discontinued operations, which would not recur and so not be comparable to recurring other net income from other companies, and also add back any non-recurring items, but subject to a tax modification that then gives us what we need to get through to the recurring diluted EPS.

And you can see that's falling over in the first year 'cause it's got nothing to work with.

2022 was an interesting year in that the recurring diluted EPS took a real dip.

If you were looking for causality there, you might recall that Axo bought two relatively large acquisitions, so I think they would call Orbis and another company, and this would've increased the gearing or leverage quite a lot, and there were perhaps integration problems.

You can see there is a recovery in the next year, but not to 2021 levels.

We're going to skip the base calculations.

We'll do those a bit later and we're going to do the subtotaling on the balance sheet.

This is relatively straightforward and if you make a mistake, you'll be caught by the balance check, and so just careful summing is the name of the game.

You can see visually the check is working because the total assets match the total liabilities and equity.

We quite like that, that turn up in a really nice, easy to see way.

And so we'll program the classic check, which is one minus the other.

You may be used to more text-based checks, such as ones that bring up, okay.

I tend to prefer a nice simple check with a zero.

It's also not subject to any rounding problems that you might see in more text-based checks.

The cashflow statement is not ready and we don't do historically, and that then brings us to the end of our totaling exercise and ready to start forecasting for.

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