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Renewable Energy Project Finance Model

Build a full renewables model. A first pass through the model will be performed, building up the mostly non-circular elements. The second pass will connect the circular elements and complete the model. Key outputs such as debt ratios and IRR are discussed.

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35 Lessons (165m)

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  • Description & Objectives

  • 1. Case Study Model Intro

    05:21
  • 2. Case Study Assumptions

    06:17
  • 3. Case Study Operations - Flags and Inflation

    03:27
  • 4. Case Study Operations - Capacity

    03:42
  • 5. Case Study Operations - Revenue

    03:10
  • 6. Case Study Operations - EBITDA

    05:01
  • 7. Case Study Sources and Uses - Intro

    02:26
  • 8. Case Study Sources and Uses - Flags and Installed Capacity

    04:42
  • 9. Case Study Sources and Uses - Funding Need

    03:37
  • 10. Case Study Sources and Uses 4 - PPE and Equity

    05:19
  • 11. Case Study Sources and Uses - IDC

    06:28
  • 12. Case Study P&L and Taxes - Basic P&L and NOLs

    06:31
  • 13. Case Study P&L and Taxes - Tax Timing

    05:30
  • 14. Case Study Balance Sheet

    05:59
  • 15. Case Study Cashflow Statement

    04:29
  • 16. Case Study Modeling Debt - Flags

    02:59
  • 17. Case Study Modeling Debt - CFADS

    04:35
  • 18. Case Study Modeling Debt - Senior Debt Service

    04:15
  • 19. Case Study Modeling Debt - Junior Debt and Equity

    03:38
  • 20. Case Study Modeling Debt - DSRA

    03:02
  • 21. Case Study Modeling Debt - Dividends and Ending Cash

    05:29
  • 22. Case Study Modeling Debt - Total DSCR

    05:18
  • 23. Case Study Modeling Debt - Individual DSCRs

    04:47
  • 24. Case Study Modeling Debt - LLCR

    05:42
  • 25. Case Study Modeling Debt - Interest Cover and Breaches

    02:32
  • 26. Case Study Looping Back - Dividends

    05:13
  • 27. Case Study Looping Back - Debt Service Capacity Charge

    02:33
  • 28. Case Study Looping Back - DSRA in Sources and Uses

    05:43
  • 29. Case Study Looping Back - Errors in Complex Circular Models

    05:28
  • 30. Case Study Looping Back - P&L Interest

    02:08
  • 31. Case Study Looping Back - P&L Thin Capitalisation

    09:53
  • 32. Case Study Looping Back - Balance Sheet and Cashflow Statement

    07:38
  • 33. Case Study The Whole Life of the Project

    02:16
  • 34. Case Study Outputs - Setup

    04:42
  • 35. Case Study Outputs - Conclusions

    05:29

Case Study Balance Sheet

  • Notes
  • Questions
  • Transcript
  • 05:59

This video builds a preliminary balance sheet.

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Transcript

Next, it's time to do the balance sheet, which is mainly mechanical.

There's some skipping and that's because there's lines that we can't do yet.

The dividends rely on there being covenant being met on the debt, so we can't do that yet.

We also don't know how much cash is available for the dividend.

The cash flow statement hasn't been done, and that's where we'll derive cash from and we haven't done the debt yet, and so those will be missing too.

But apart from that, we should be able to work the rest out.

We've got the check down here, which eventually will give us a lot of comfort, but while we've got so many gaps, this thing probably will not balance.

Initially, you can see a calculation, as we mentioned earlier, you might see PP&E here.

We did PP&E in sources and uses because it was very conveniently next to the information.

What we've got here is base for retained earnings.

We're going to go and grab net income and we're gonna let the retained earnings work that way.

You can see we've ended up with negative retained earnings. That is possible. It represents using cash with no particular gain, it being expensed, and then depleting the equity of the company or in this case project. Later we'll pay dividends, but we haven't got those yet.

As we mentioned, we're also skipping cash, and so we're onto receivables.

This represents our customers owing us money, and on average, our customers are going to owe us money for 30 days out of, and rather than hard coding the year it is better practice to have the year elsewhere.

We've got it here, let's lock that.

We've got to decide what the receivables will be generated by.

They'll probably be generated by revenue.

We've just got to figure out whether we think the receivables will be just on electricity or for certain customers or for all of revenue, and that in fact is the assumption that we're going to use.

So we're going to assume that all of our customers owe us money for 30 days, and in fact, they take a while to pay the capacity charge as well.

So we're gonna move on to PP&E.

We've got that already because we built up the base account within the source and uses, so we can just point it to the netbook value there at the end.

The total assets then just make sure that when you do the auto sum, you include cash.

I've made that error many times when you hit auto sum, it will have a guess at what you mean, and it's always worth sense checking that.

Okay, next, the tax payable.

We've worked that out in our P&L and tax, so we're going to point it at the payable.

We decided to do that as a positive, and now that will reward us because we don't need to flip the sign.

Next, our trade payable, we'll do it exactly the same way as we did our receivable.

Okay, we'll take 60 days worth payable.

And so this project is in the enviable position of getting paid before it pays.

We then have to decide again what kind of costs we'll attach that to.

So are we gonna pay our suppliers for our variable costs and owe them money for a while or fixed costs or both? We're going to do both. Let's pull that to the right, see if it makes sense.

You can see that's come out as a negative, and that's because we've attached it to a negative cost.

So we need to flip the sign on that because we haven't done the debt schedule yet.

And now we're going to do total liabilities.

And again, just keep an eye on that sum.

Do a sense check before you hit enter.

It's kind of preventative, small things like that that will save you a lot of bother down the line.

In a complex model like this, we've then got equity and probably the best place we can go and get equity is sources and uses.

In terms of equity financing, we have a running total on row 61 here, so let's use that now.

We don't envisage any kind of reduction in equity like shared buybacks, and so we can leave it like this.

The retained earnings we can grab from working above.

And then just being careful. This isn't a simple auto sum.

We're grabbing total liabilities and the sum of equity, and then we can do our check.

And our check will be whether we total liabilities and equity match the total assets.

Now you'll see, interestingly, it seems to work for a while and then it falls apart.

Now the reasons behind that are complex, but as a starter, what you can see is that there is a huge gap of 117.

We've got a bunch of equity financing the project, but we have a greater need than that, and that is gonna be plugged by debt.

Now, post the CapEx phase, there's gonna be a lot more going on than just that being the earnings tax, all sorts of stuff.

But you can see initially the project's very simple.

It's just we buy some stuff, okay, we buy some turbines, we start putting a spade in the ground, we're capitalizing all sorts of stuff, and we're paying for that with equity.

And then in the next year, it's still gonna work quite simply once we put the debt in, we're gonna borrow to buy the rest of the stuff, and then things get more and more complex as the project comes along.

So for the moment, we're not worried that that check doesn't balance, but later on that will be a very strong tool for error checking.

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