Case Study Operations - Capacity
- 03:42
This video builds up the operations of the windfarm.
Glossary
modeling modelling Project finance RenewablesTranscript
Okay, so the next line is quite tricky.
What we need to do is we need to say that the project capacity will be, and if we just get started kind of playing around with it now, basically the project capacity you could think of as if the project is online.
It has a hundred percent capacity.
The problem we've got is that we have a ramp up year, and in fact, in a real model, we may have several ramp up years, which would make it much more complicated.
Now here we have a ramp up year and we can see from above it's year one.
So although we do have a hundred percent capacity in subsequent years, we need this number to say 80% as opposed to what we've got now, a hundred percent.
So if we go back into this, what we can do is, as a tactic, we can try and get this to multiply by 80% if the flag beneath is one.
There's all sorts of ways to achieve that, but we could probably just do it with an IF so, we could say, IF the flag is one, then you're gonna be multiplying by 8% and we'd need to lock that one.
Otherwise, just multiply it by 1.
And it's not great to have a hard-coded 1 in there, but in this case it kind of makes sense because we're really just saying leave it alone.
Now, having copied that to the right, you can see it's behaving itself nicely.
We've got 0% capacity when there is no project.
We've got 80% capacity in the first year, and we've got a hundred percent capacity in subsequent years.
And I'm hoping that you're starting to see the value of these flags because you can imagine this is already quite complex, but trying to embed the logic of being the first year within this line as well, would make this a very hard to understand line.
So it's very, very common to see flags in renewable projects and you should get used to them.
Now, disaggregating the logic as well helps with the following line because we can say there's 0% of 200, and so we can take those and multiply them and it becomes quite straightforward.
We can then say the efficiency, which will be a really important thing that guides the P50, P90 assumptions.
Okay, so we've got a turbine efficiency of about 40%, which is uh, your kind of P50 assumption, your average case, let's say.
What we need to do is we need to multiply that by the max megawatts and then we get the likely outcome as opposed to the maximum outcome, which is never gonna happen in a real renewables project.
Okay? So this section, what we're going to do is go and fetch some assumptions.
Those assumptions are actually on the assumptions tab because we couldn't fit them in the margin.
There are 365 days per year, got to lock that one.
And there are 24 hours per day.
And so the absolute, Absolute total number of hours that you could turn the turbines is 8,760.
We've then got some outage hours.
Now, in a more sophisticated model, those might alter per year.
In this one we've just said that they are stable.
And so we've got scheduled and then we've got estimates of breakdowns effectively. That will lead to our available hours.
And we're now in a position to translate the megawatts into megawatt hours.
And you can see we don't have to gate this or attach it to any flags because that logic has been dealt with already.