Case Study Looping Back - Dividends
- 05:13
This video passes through the model again, filling in blanks. Here we calculate dividends.
Glossary
modeling modelling Project finance RenewablesTranscript
So we've done a first pass of the model effectively. There are a couple of things we should just check.
We have a number of checks baked in. We've got a cashflow check here which says, does the cashflow statement here in the debt waterfall talk to and agree with the cashflow statement here? And it doesn't. But that's because we've got a few missing figures. We've also got a balance sheet check, which again doesn't work. And we want all of those to work. And as we double back and start filling things in, we're gonna create some pretty intense circularity. And so as we start to fill things in, there is a reasonable chance that we'll end up with value or other errors. I'll make a separate video where I'll show you the resolution of one of those. You may have already seen it. If you end up with an error and you can't seem to get rid of it, don't panic. There are some tactics which we'll have showed you, okay, that can help with that.
Now the idea is that we are going to double back and we're gonna do things as much as we can where we can.
If we look around on the debt, you can see that we've got some gaps. If we start at the top, these are more administrative gaps really. And that's because this is referring to next year. And if I copy that to the right, it wouldn't work.
These gaps here are a bit more pressing. And so we can fill them in. They say if there is a DSCR of two, then we're allowed to pay out a dividend. Presumably they're talking about the overall DSCR.
So let's say if the min DSCR greater than total DSCR and we're not allowed to pay out, otherwise we're, and let's see what that does.
You can see that is not behaving the way we want it to. And we've started to run into trouble with these N/As and they're seriously tricky with these tests. There are lots of ways of achieving what we want, but one way we can do it is we can say, okay, let's go back to the drawing board and think about it. F63 is this number here. What if we multiply that by the flag with the hope that in a non year it turns it into a zero? You can see that that's ended up not working for us by multiplying text by zero, it's just not working. Now it has created a hashtag value, so it's created an error. And so we could wrap the whole thing in an IF error and get those N/As out again.
The problem with the N/As are that if we then multiply the N/As by the amount of dividend that's possible, we'll get the errors and those errors are difficult to get back out of the model. Now I'm lucky I press delete and it comes out and that's because there's no circularity going. But in this stage of the build, we've got to be really careful because as we create more and more circularity, errors can start to persist and become problematic. Now instead of putting an N/A there, if we change our minds and turn that into a zero, now Excel has a series of zeros and ones as numbers. And what we should find is that we say, okay, if the flag is one, pay out. If not, don't pay out 100 percent of what's possible.
And we wanted that as a negative.
You can see some interesting stuff starting to happen and as we start to close loops, interesting and quite satisfying things will happen. You can see when the flags are at zero, either because they're not being measured or because they're too low because the grace period has elapsed, no dividend is possible. You can see that where a dividend is possible, we're going to pay out as much as possible to the dividend. I.e. distribute it to the shareholders. And that possibility is being reduced by the allocation that we talked about earlier, which is the DSRA. And so we should end up in terms of cash attracting interest with the DSRA because what we're doing is we're saying payout everything that's not allocated to the DSRA. Now, if we were really smart about it, we could have anticipated the interest and had that building up to the DSRA, but our model is perhaps being a bit simpler or saying you need that in your account at the start of the year. And so we're gonna accrue interest on that. And so our closing cash balance will not exactly be the DSRA as you can see.