Case Study Outputs - Conclusions
- 05:29
This video concludes the model by analyzing the requirements of lenders and shareholders of the wind farm.
Transcript
We'd like to go and get our data tables now just to be tidy, let's go and get the breaches and put them here.
Now the breaches are down here in the number of any breaches on the debt tab.
And let's bring them here. And you can see with this modest level of debt, because our assumptions are at 50%, there are no breaches, but we're not exciting our shareholders.
Let's see if we can change that.
The first thing we're gonna do is point the data table at the output.
We may wanna blank that later, but we'll leave it the way it is now.
Next, we're gonna make sure that these are hard coded as opposed to being linked to the model.
If they're linked to the model, ill cause problems and we're gonna highlight the whole thing t dt, and then just calm ourselves down because this very error prone the row input cells, that's gonna be the one in the row.
So that's amount of debt.
This is why we've got the data tables on this tab.
It's because they need to be on the same tab as the assumptions.
Now the column input cell, that's your turbine efficiency.
So we'll go and find that on row 18.
Ooh, nearly missed and nearly missed. Again, row 18.
And then if we're okay, it's quite likely it's gonna do nothing.
Ah, of course F nine is a key that is reserved to my recording software.
So of course that won't work now.
So what I need to do is you can do it by hitting F nine and forcing a cycle.
I'll need to go and make sure, can you see I've got day to tables effectively switched off.
So if I hit them to automatic, there we go.
Now you can see that I've got conditional formatting in here.
I dunno why that's bold.
And the conditional formatting says if we have an impressive IRR above 12, then go ahead and make that green.
And if you're interested in how that works, you can find the conditional formatting under these managed rules.
They're quite set up.
So you can see that we will need to ramp up the debt to 60% if our shareholders who will assess the project on a P 50 basis are going to believe in the project as worthy of their investment.
So next, what we should do is see if that's possible given the bank's lending criteria.
So we'll link this data table to the number of breaches.
Then we'll go ahead and do the same thing to alt DT it.
Find a level of debt first.
Find the turbine efficiency next here. Okay, see if it works. Aha.
So you can see that the bank is going to be much more interested in this row or the lenders.
And that's because although they understand that this scenario exists, that's not their default attitude.
Their attitude is much more conservative.
So they're going to say, show me your forecasts and demonstrate to me that there'll be no breaches on a P 90 basis, which we are letting govern just the turbine efficiency.
In other models, it may govern more.
And you can see that by the time we get to 70% debt, which we'd love to do because from a P 50 point of view, it does lovely things to our IRR.
But the moment we hit 70%, there are too many breaches.
I.e. any breaches.
And if we go up to 80%, really it starts to get totally out of control.
Now this is very helpful because effectively the intersection between this being okay and this being okay gives us the conclusion to this model, which is this project will be a modest success.
If there is 60% borrowing, there will be an adequate IRR with no breaches.
And if the terms with the bank could be renegotiated because really it's just one little breach there and we could go and find out what's causing it and see if we can work on that target, then perhaps we could deliver a really good IRR.
And what this does is give you a view of the different stakeholders assessment of renewables projects like this, it'll be bound up with P 50 and P 90.
The final thing to say about the model, and I think I said it very early on, but it bears repeating, is if you ever find a model like this, you may find that it works in reverse.
We have structured this model because it's nice to teach from and it's understandable to take inputs such as the debt financing as an input, and then create outputs to test.
You may find that other models take the targets and create the debt level that is acceptable and create that as an output.
And that could be called debt sculpting.
So be aware that does exist. Okay? If you've been working along with me, congratulations, you're at the end of the renewables model.
Hopefully that worked for you.
Remember, you can find all of the solutions in downloads with these videos and work along with them.