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Renewable Energy Project Finance Model

Build a full renewables model. A first pass through the model will be performed, building up the mostly non-circular elements. The second pass will connect the circular elements and complete the model. Key outputs such as debt ratios and IRR are discussed.

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35 Lessons (165m)

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  • Description & Objectives

  • 1. Case Study Model Intro

    05:21
  • 2. Case Study Assumptions

    06:17
  • 3. Case Study Operations - Flags and Inflation

    03:27
  • 4. Case Study Operations - Capacity

    03:42
  • 5. Case Study Operations - Revenue

    03:10
  • 6. Case Study Operations - EBITDA

    05:01
  • 7. Case Study Sources and Uses - Intro

    02:26
  • 8. Case Study Sources and Uses - Flags and Installed Capacity

    04:42
  • 9. Case Study Sources and Uses - Funding Need

    03:37
  • 10. Case Study Sources and Uses 4 - PPE and Equity

    05:19
  • 11. Case Study Sources and Uses - IDC

    06:28
  • 12. Case Study P&L and Taxes - Basic P&L and NOLs

    06:31
  • 13. Case Study P&L and Taxes - Tax Timing

    05:30
  • 14. Case Study Balance Sheet

    05:59
  • 15. Case Study Cashflow Statement

    04:29
  • 16. Case Study Modeling Debt - Flags

    02:59
  • 17. Case Study Modeling Debt - CFADS

    04:35
  • 18. Case Study Modeling Debt - Senior Debt Service

    04:15
  • 19. Case Study Modeling Debt - Junior Debt and Equity

    03:38
  • 20. Case Study Modeling Debt - DSRA

    03:02
  • 21. Case Study Modeling Debt - Dividends and Ending Cash

    05:29
  • 22. Case Study Modeling Debt - Total DSCR

    05:18
  • 23. Case Study Modeling Debt - Individual DSCRs

    04:47
  • 24. Case Study Modeling Debt - LLCR

    05:42
  • 25. Case Study Modeling Debt - Interest Cover and Breaches

    02:32
  • 26. Case Study Looping Back - Dividends

    05:13
  • 27. Case Study Looping Back - Debt Service Capacity Charge

    02:33
  • 28. Case Study Looping Back - DSRA in Sources and Uses

    05:43
  • 29. Case Study Looping Back - Errors in Complex Circular Models

    05:28
  • 30. Case Study Looping Back - P&L Interest

    02:08
  • 31. Case Study Looping Back - P&L Thin Capitalisation

    09:53
  • 32. Case Study Looping Back - Balance Sheet and Cashflow Statement

    07:38
  • 33. Case Study The Whole Life of the Project

    02:16
  • 34. Case Study Outputs - Setup

    04:42
  • 35. Case Study Outputs - Conclusions

    05:29

Case Study Looping Back - Balance Sheet and Cashflow Statement

  • Notes
  • Questions
  • Transcript
  • 07:38

This video completes the 3 statement model and checks integrity.

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Looping Back - Balance Sheet and Cashflow Statement EmptyLooping Back - Balance Sheet and Cashflow Statement Full

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Transcript

We're now going to complete the balance sheet.

On the run up to the balance sheet, we have our retained earnings calculation.

It includes dividends, which we calculated near to the bottom of the debt schedule.

You can see the dividends are already a negative figure, so we don't need to flip the sign on them.

And there they are.

And you can see at the moment we've got very negative retained earnings, which may be a problem from the point of view of paying a dividend if they persist.

Once we've really linked up the model, we still can't do cash because we haven't done the cash phase statement, so we'll need to double back yet again once we've done the rest of the doubling back.

And so in a very complex model like this, you'll find yourself doubling and doubling and doubling back the senior and junior debt we can get.

And that will be the closing balances from the debt.

We can see the ending senior debt here and then the ending junior debt over here and let's copy that forward, make sure it's working.

We've then got the check and it's still not working, but those numbers are starting to become more and more familiar, which gives great confidence because you can see that this roughly is the DSRA and the interest.

Let's go ahead and do the cash flow statement now.

You can see a lot of it we've filled in before.

We're now going to go ahead and do the senior debt.

Remember we didn't go and grab this from sources and uses because we want this line to also have repayment.

So what we'll do is we'll point it at debt and we'll say, okay, this is a liability, so it will be a right minus left situation.

If we copy that forwards, just to make sure it's working, you can see we issue debt and then we start to repay it.

Notice that this cashflow statement is starting from net income.

So as opposed to our debt waterfall cashflow statement where we dealt with interest separately here, the interest is within that line there.

And just incidentally, while we were doing the P&L we needed to leave the switch on because interest needed to work and I've left the switch on and iteration on, so this model is still fully circular right now.

That might account for why your figures are slightly different to mine.

If you're working along with me. If we were to turn off the switch, then arguably we would be working in a safer environment, but several elements might be missing, which might make it difficult to understand what's happening, which is why we left a switch on while we were building the P&L. Because if you look there when we turn the switch off, absolutely nothing happens because the interest is circular.

Now if we resume our build, you can see we want junior debt issuance and repayment.

Copy that to the right and you can see that the financing cash flows are starting to match the CapEx and IDC.

So this gives us, again, great courage because we're starting to see a ending cash, which is behaving itself.

We then fill in the dividends and let's go to debt and find those dividends.

Here they are now, you can see the ended cash as ended up unrecognizable and that's because, and I kind of did it on purpose.

I flipped the switch halfway through.

So you can see we, we kind of have an idea that the DSRA should be about five and a half thousand.

If I flip the switch again and just make sure, yep, iteration is on, we'll start to see that number appear.

And this is the DSRA that we're seeing the cash flow statement to the balance sheet.

So we'll loop back again and here's one of our last missing lines.

And so we'll go and hook that up with the ending cash here.

And what you can see, you could see I was in a hurry to get there because you know, this is an interesting moment for me as well. Having built this huge model, it's fairly error pro.

I'm looking for that to say zero across the board.

And the fact it does makes me very happy, and I'm hoping you're in a similar position as well.

We may as well do some more checks while we're doing that.

Remember we've got this check here.

We've got a check and source and uses.

So are the sources matching the uses? They are. We've got a check in debt where we say, does the debt cashflow match the regular cashflow? And it does those minus brackets. There are very, very small incremental differences that we don't worry about.

So any zeros there we're happy and this now appears to be working.

I would probably just double back again and take a little tour of the model and just make sure that everything seems to be working okay.

First off, to be clear, I've got the switch on and iteration on operations appears to be working nicely.

No strange. N/As got positive ebitda and we've got all of the yellows filled in source uses.

We've got the circular stuff working and it's making sense and we're not taking anything in the operational phase. P&L and tax.

Okay? Once we've got everything hooked up, we do have a modest loss there.

That modest loss is translating into a very modest loss, but that's because of disallowed interest.

So we have thin cap and NOLs working together.

The balance sheet is balancing and everything is filled in the cash flow statement from a three statement modeling cash flow statement point of view does make sense.

We have a strange last year, but that's because of the sudden lurching stop and the debt waterfall, okay? Which doesn't have any acceleration, but just mandatory payments is working fine.

Okay? We still have a number of gaps, but everything is checking out and the whole thing is hanging together and we now have a better view of whether we're breaching or not.

And you can see that having hooked up the whole model, we had multiple breaches earlier and those seem to have for a large part gone away.

And you can see that's because the debt service element of the revenue has made a huge difference to the performance of the project.

The only breaches we've got left are these LLCR breaches, but they're being caused by the fact that I haven't copied the whole project forward.

So the MPV of the CFAs is looking really bad.

Now, if you're able to follow along with me there and you've doubled back and then double backed again and everything's working okay, then congratulations.

You've built a good model there.

Now what we'll do next is after a little tidy up, we will go ahead and start doing the returns.

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