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Pulling The Analysis Together

Understand how to construct a valuation football field graph.

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15 Lessons (44m)

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  • Description & Objectives

  • 1. What Is A Football Field

    02:42
  • 2. Football Field Considerations

    04:28
  • 3. Model - Walkthrough

    01:13
  • 4. Model - Key Data

    02:31
  • 5. Model - EV EBITDA

    04:14
  • 6. Model - PE

    02:01
  • 7. Model - DCF

    02:32
  • 8. Model - Share Price Range

    01:27
  • 9. Model - Transaction Comps

    05:00
  • 10. Model - Premium Paid

    01:51
  • 11. Model - DCF With Synergies

    02:55
  • 12. Model - Setting Up The Table

    01:41
  • 13. Model - Basic Graph

    02:49
  • 14. Model - Graph - Share Price Line

    05:19
  • 15. Model - Graph - Floating Labels

    03:15

Prev: Advanced Valuation Techniques Next: Football Field Model

Football Field Considerations

  • Notes
  • Questions
  • Transcript
  • 04:28

Understand how to summarize valuation methodologies

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Acquisition Chart Standalone Valuation Range
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Transcript

Before building our football field, we need to design it, which means going through some key considerations The first of these is what do we actually want to show on the football field? Do we want to show our implied EV (my enterprise value), implied equity value or per share value Let's say we're going to go with the per share value (the implied share price) Next up we need to decide, what methodologies are we going to use to get to that implied share price? We could use one or all of the following. We could use trading multiples? 52 week trading range? Transaction multiples if you're looking at an acquisition of a target DCF if stand alone, DCF with synergies if looking at an acquisition Or an LBO if you've got a private equity buyer Thereafter you then need to include some of your assumptions in your football field If you're going to be doing a DCF, then it's normal to show the growth assumption and the WACC assumption If you're going to looking at trading multiples, then you might want to actually include the high and low multiple assumption in the football field chart With all of these key considerations taken, you can then come up with your final valuation ranges and put them into your football field graph So now we have to prepare our data Here we've got a lot of data, we've got two columns of enterprise value in US dollar millions And we've got two columns for the share price in US dollar We've also got seven valuation techniques down the left hand side such as trading EV to calendar year 2017 EBITDA You've then got a trading P/E, a trading PEG etc You'll notice that the stand alone valuation techniques have been grouped together So your trading multiples (the top three) And your DC excluding synergies, all look at the company standing on its own Underneath that you've then got the controlled valuation methods put together So transaction comps, premium paid and DCF including synergies We've clearly sated our assumptions within the labels. So the DCF including synergies explicitly says 4% of sales In putting all of this data together, you're going to have to cross the EV to equity bridge a number of times So it's useful to have those bridge adjustments handy and on the same tab as your summarized data Lastly we're going to be creating our football field graph by using a stat bar chart In order to do that we'll need to low figure, so for instance We'll take the low share price of 17.84, but I'll then want to show the difference between the low and the high So the 17.84 and the difference between that and 19.67 So we create a third column (the difference between the two) and that will help us with that stat bar chart Here's an example of a football field We've got our 7 valuation techniques down the left hand side including their assumptions We've then got our graph and on the X-axis we've specified our units. In this case the share price in US dollars There's an extra line been included to show the current share price. Now that's just under 20 dollars here We can see that some of the valuation techniques indicate an implied share price below that In particular the top three methodologies, all of them being trading comps The DCF excluding synergies, straddles the current share price And all of the controlled techniques show an implied share price above the current share price That then leads us to an acquisition valuation range, we've shown this with two dashed lines. And it's somewhere between 25 and 27 dollars If you think it's realistic to include within your football field, then you might include the price of P/E or private equity buyer would pay Assuming they want to achieve an IRR between 20 and 25% And how have we got these floating bars? So for instance, the top methodology (trading EV to EBITDA) shows a valuation between 17.84 and 19.67 How have we done that? We're using a stacked bar chart We take the lower value 17.84 (we've made a white bar there) And then you add on the difference between the lower value and the higher value And that then creates the little bar that we can see

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