Model - DCF
- 02:32
Understand how to choose the discounted cash flow valuation range
Glossary
DCF Football Field Sensitivity Valuation RangeTranscript
In finding a valuation range for DCF, we need to go to the FCF (the free cash flow tab) At the bottom of this tab, we've got some sensitivity data tables It's the first of these we want to look at, we've got long term growth ranging from 1.6% up to 2.4% And we've got the WACC ranging from 7.25% down to 6.45% Now the first question mark is, do we really need a range that big? Because what we end up with is valuation from 19 dollars, all the way to 25.32 So if you think, from 19 dollars up that's 25% range (that's quite wide) So instead we want to narrow that down a bit and I've put the figures in bold that we're going to look at We're going to have our range from 20.23 up to 23.3, so they're going to be our two figures So let's go back to the football field tab, let's put them in So we'll have our low calc and our high and I'm going to link them up to the DCF tab, the free cash flow tab I don't think these figures are going to changing very much on the free cash flow tab, I'm happy to link them up Next up, I need to include some of the assumptions that have gone into those two figures (the 20.23 and the 23.3) I need to include the WACC range that we've used and the long term growth rate range that we've used So the WACC, let's go have a look at the free cash flow tab again It ranged from 7.05 to 6.65 And the growth ranged from 1.8% to 2.2% Very important that we include these in our label, otherwise we've got no idea where these figures have come from at all Now we did link up those share prices (the 20.23 and the 23.33), we linked them to the FCF tab The only time when we might decide definitely not to link it up is if those figures on the free cash flow tab might change So for instance, if you've got a DCF that could have synergies Which may have a switch, which turns the synergies on and off. Then we want to hard code these figures in here Because if we turn the switch on, then these figures would instantly jump up when it included the value of the synergies as well