Gross Written Premiums
- 01:46
Undestand how to forecast gross written premiums
Glossary
DAC Forecasting Gross Written PremiumsTranscript
The first thing we're gonna forecast is our gross written premiums, and we're gonna do that using these growth rate forecasts here. And we've been given separate assumptions for both the life business and the non-life business. So we can forecast these separately. Now the reason that we're gonna build these forecasts first is that when we're building our insurance provision forecasts we can check that those provisions are growing in line with gross written premiums. The other reason we need these is that when we are forecasting our DAC, you can see that the capitalized DAC is based on the amount of gross written premiums in the year. So let's calculate our gross written premiums starting off with the life amounts. Now, as with any forecast we're gonna take our assumption first. We take that from above and apply that to the prior number.
And we do exactly the same for our non-life business.
So we've got our gross written premiums for our first forecast year, and we can just roll those forward to our last forecast year. Now the one thing we are not gonna do is take this information and put it into the income statement. Now that might be a bit surprising, so let's have a think about why that is, and maybe it's helpful if we take a look at the income statement to understand why.
So let's start off with the life segment and you can see that the first thing that we'll forecast for the life segment is actually the profits from our insurance business rather than the actual gross written premium. Then when we look at the P&C segment, you can see that it's actually the net premium and not the gross written premium that we'll need there. So we're just gonna park our gross written premium for the moment and come back to it when we need it for our other forecasts.