Insurance Reserves
- 02:20
Understand how to forecast provisions in life insurance business
Glossary
Insurance Provisions Modeling ProvisionsTranscript
We're gonna model insurance provisions for Generali. And to do that, we are gonna use these assumptions here. So that's using a growth rate assumption for both the life insurance business and also the non-life insurance business. So modeling it in exactly the same way as we would, for example, the loan portfolio of a bank. Now, one thing to note is that if we were modeling a standalone P&C insurance business, we may choose to model those provisions in a bit more detail, looking at, for example, the unearned premium reserves and also the claims reserves. However, because this sits within a larger life insurance business, and for simplicity, we'll model those non-life insurance provisions in exactly the same way as the life insurance provisions. Now, the other thing to note is as you go towards the end of our forecast period, you'll see that those growth rates are actually the same as for the gross written premiums. And that's because those gross written premiums are a key driver of our insurance provisions. One other thing to highlight is that you'll see we have this assumption for the unit-linked business, and we're forecasting that as a percentage of our life insurance provisions. So effectively, we are allocating a proportion of our life insurance provisions to our unit-linked business. And we are gonna need that when we are forecasting our unit-linked provisions which, remember, are a memorandum item within our balance sheet. So let's go down to our balance sheet now and start to forecast our provisions.
And we'll start off with our life insurance provisions. So we'll need to take our growth rate from above, and then apply that to the prior year number.
And then we'll do exactly the same for our P&C provisions. (keyboard clacking) And then finally, our memorandum item, our unit-linked provisions, we just take our assumption from above and apply that percentage to our life insurance provisions. So we now have our forecast for our life insurance provisions, our unit-linked provisions, and our P&C insurance provisions for Generali. Now, we've only forecast them for one year. I'm gonna leave it like that and roll forward all of my balance sheet forecasts once I finish building my balance sheet.