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Life Insurance Modeling

Understand how to model and value life insurance companies.

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22 Lessons (62m)

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  • Description & Objectives

  • 1. Flows in Life Insurance

    01:59
  • 2. Modelling Key Steps

    02:29
  • 3. Model Set Up

    04:01
  • 4. Gross Written Premiums

    01:46
  • 5. Insurance Reserves

    02:20
  • 6. Reinsurance Assets

    01:58
  • 7. Intangible and Tangible Assets

    02:36
  • 8. DAC Asset

    02:23
  • 9. Other Assets and Liabilities

    03:01
  • 10. Investments and Cash Allocation

    02:33
  • 11. Investments and Cash

    04:04
  • 12. Balancing the Balance Sheet

    01:44
  • 13. Life Insurance Profits

    03:04
  • 14. P&C Profits

    03:39
  • 15. Other Income and Expense

    03:39
  • 16. Modelling Equity

    02:32
  • 17. Capital Requirement

    03:35
  • 18. Dividends

    04:05
  • 19. Equity

    01:47
  • 20. Equity Circular Reference

    02:58
  • 21. Life Insurance Valuation

    03:50
  • 22. Life Insurance Modeling Tryout


Prev: P&C Insurance Analysis Next: P&C Insurance Modeling

Equity Circular Reference

  • Notes
  • Questions
  • Transcript
  • 02:58

Understand how to deal with circular references when forecasting equity

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Transcript

You can see here that we forecast the shareholders' equity for Generali, but we haven't yet put that equity into our balance sheet. Now, before we do this, let's have a think about what would happen if we did. So if we put equity into our balance sheet, that would increase total liabilities and equity but this would then increase the investment balances as these are treated as a residual item in the balance sheet. But if the investment balance is increased, then this increases the investment returns in our income statement and this then increases our net income figure and therefore, our ending equity balance. So the whole process becomes circular and we would have a circular reference in our model. Now, this in itself isn't a problem as long as we manage it carefully, and this is because we want to make sure that we have the ability to turn a circular reference on or off when we're editing the model to avoid the model becoming unstable if we create an error. Therefore, the best practice technique is to use a circular switch when we're putting the equity into the balance sheet. So let's do that now.

Now, when we're using a circular switch, we use an IF function, and that tells the model that if the switch is set to one and therefore on, it should grab the shareholders' equity figure from the calculations above. Else it should return a zero value. So we've done that and it's now returning a zero value. So that tells us that the switch is currently off. Now, let's roll forward that calculation to the end of our forecast period, and then we're gonna need to work out how we can turn the switch on. Now, in order to turn it on, we need to know where the switch is. So where is it hiding in our model? Well, if you scroll to the previous tab of our model, the info tab, you can see that actually, the switch is hiding here. And in fact, if you look to the top left of your screen, you'll see that the switch is actually sitting in a named cell. So it's named Switch. And that means that when we reference that cell in our IF function, Excel knows to look to this cell. Now, as you can see, the switch is set to zero at the moment, so the switch is off. But before we turn it on, we need to change our Excel settings 'cause we need to allow Excel to compute iterative calculations. And we do that using our shortcut Alt + F + T, and down to the formula section. And then we turn on the iterative settings And now we can turn the circular switch on. Now let's go back to our model and see what's happening there. Now you can see that the shareholder's equity is returning the figure from the calculations above. And if we wanted to remove those, we could just go back and turn the switch off. So now that we've turned the switch on, we can see the shareholders' equity in the model. And if we zoom out, we can see that we've now finished building our model for Generali.

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