Modelling Equity
- 02:32
Learn the steps to model equity and the expected capital requirement
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Transcript
Let's have a think about how we can forecast the equity of an insurance company and we're gonna break this down into a number of steps. Now, the first step is to set the target solvency ratio and usually we would do that using the company's own target or in the absence of that, look at the historic levels. But typically this is well in excess of the regulatory minimum 'cause insurance companies usually like to have a buffer. Next, we're gonna forecast the capital requirement for the insurance company. And to do this, we'll need to build an expectation of what the drivers are for the capital requirements and how we can use our existing balance sheet forecast to do this. Once we've set our target ratio and our forecast capital requirement, we can then back out what's the required own funds for that insurance company. Once we've done that, we can then add back intangibles, the DAC assets and deferred tax assets to the own funds to give us shareholders equity. Once we have our shareholders equity, we can then calculate what surplus we have that can be used to pay a dividend each year or if there's a shortfall, what's the capital requirement. Once we've done that, we have our forecast for our dividends and our equity balance so we can pop that into our balance sheet and then deal with the circular reference. Let's have a little think in more detail about this solvency capital requirement, though. So the thing to remember is that the capital requirement can be broken down into different components and that's shown on the left hand side. You can see there's the financial risk, the credit risk, the various underwriting risks, and other operational elements. So let's have a think about what the drivers are for each of those components. Now, when we think about the financial risk and the credit risk, clearly that's going to be linked to what's on the asset side of the balance sheet. And in fact, it would typically be the investments, the receivables, and the cash and cash equivalents. So we can use those balances from our forecast balance sheet as the drivers for that component of the capital requirement. Once we've done that, we can do a similar exercise for our underwriting risk, but clearly the driver for that will be the insurance provisions in our forecast balance sheets. But what about the operational risk and the diversification and other adjustments? Well, those are closely linked to the nature of the insurance company's operations. So typically we would hold those adjustments and items steady unless there's a major change to the operations of the insurance company within the explicit forecast period. So now that we've looked at that, we can start to build our expected capital requirement and forecast our equity.