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Industrials - Analysis and Modeling

What makes industrials distinct from other sectors, and applies a range of sector-specific techniques.

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33 Lessons (127m)

Show lesson playlist
  • Description & Objectives

  • 1. Industrials Companies Overviews and Valuations | Interactive Video

  • 2. Introduction to Sector Players

    01:17
  • 3. What Makes Industrials Special

    03:25
  • 4. Backlog

    02:13
  • 5. Backlog Workout

    04:34
  • 6. Original Equipment (OE) vs. After Market (AM) Revenue

    02:04
  • 7. Contracts

    01:59
  • 8. Contracts Workout

    05:17
  • 9. Research and Development (R&D)

    01:17
  • 10. Research and Development (R&D) Workout

    04:58
  • 11. Financing Segment and Sum of the Parts

    02:04
  • 12. Financing Segment and Sum of the Parts Workout

    04:55
  • 13. Pensions in the Industrial Sector

    01:49
  • 14. Pensions in Chemicals Sector Workout

    08:07
  • 15. Industrial Company Example Financials

    01:47
  • 16. Industrial Sector Metrics

    00:59
  • 17. Kion Model - Introduction

    02:46
  • 18. Kion Model - Segments ITS Part 1

    07:08
  • 19. Kion Model - Segments ITS Part 2

    07:14
  • 20. Kion Model - Segments SCS

    04:42
  • 21. Kion Model - Segments Corporate

    02:38
  • 22. Main Kion Model Intro and Assumptions

    03:45
  • 23. Kion Model - Income Statement

    08:17
  • 24. Kion Model - Depreciation

    03:03
  • 25. Kion Model - Research and Development (R&D)

    04:46
  • 26. Kion Model - Total EBIT

    09:54
  • 27. Kion Model - Balance Sheet Assets

    04:02
  • 28. Kion Model - Balance Sheet Liabilities and Equity

    01:24
  • 29. Kion Model - Cashflow Statement

    06:08
  • 30. Kion Model - Interest and Circularity

    04:10
  • 31. Kion Model - Metrics

    03:15
  • 32. Kion Model - Valuation

    05:01
  • 33. Kion Model - IFRS vs. US GAAP

    02:56

Kion Model - Segments ITS Part 2

  • Notes
  • Questions
  • Transcript
  • 07:14

Segmental forecasting for an industrials company, Kion.

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backlog cycle length Industrials
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Transcript

We're still in ITS and now we're going to turn our gaze to the aftermarket or services business and just be careful in terms of your understanding.

It says services and then SCS, you could get a bit confused with that.

Remember, ITS is concerned with trucks.

This is Keyon delivering trucks.

This is Keyon doing aftermarket service on those trucks, perhaps customization, things like that.

And then SES is entirely distinct.

This is the warehouse automation part of Keyon.

The disclosures within kilns financial statements mean that we have to infer the services business order intake.

We can find the total order intake for ITS and we can find the order intake for truck delivery and then we can infer the order intake for the aftermarket by taking the total for the whole of ITS and deducting the original equipment truck delivery part.

Once we've got the order intake, we can then take the historical and our view of what's going to happen with services and we can grow the order intake the same way we did Notice that we don't have a backlog.

First of all, the disclosures don't support that level of detail within Kons financial statements.

The other thing is that the service doesn't really warrant a backlog.

This isn't us taking orders for trucks.

This is us servicing the trucks after we've sold them.

It's an entirely different kind of business and it doesn't really support the idea of a backlog, so we're not going to do that.

You might wonder, well, if we're not doing a backlog, why are we doing any of this? It's still helpful to think about book to bill even for this part of the business.

Don't need to do that missing figure exercise.

So we can jump straight to a modification of last year's orders.

Then we can do the same thing for revenue and we can infer from that a key metrics or key metric should I say, for industrial companies, which is the book to bill The this case bookings would be the orders and bill would be the revenue.

You can see once I've pulled it forward, there's an interesting dynamic going on here where trucks are being created, there is a backlog.

We are then selling those trucks and when we sell trucks there'll be a lag between relationship between trucks and the servicing of those trucks.

And so broadly we would expect everything that happens in this area to influence what happens in this area with perhaps a lag of a year or so because the services package would be delayed compared to the truck delivery.

On the whole, this would be predicted to be a much more stable part of the business because a lot of this is recurring revenue that might be subscription based and so we're not seeing as big a swing in the revenues or orders as we are in the equipment part.

You can see that translates to a more stable book to bill and the same ideas that we discussed within trucks are also true here where we have a relationship where about 102% or so for this company is about normal and represents inflated new prices compared to the revenue being generated on the whole services is a very encouraging part of Ian's business.

Um, it's more service oriented and less capital intensive and that means that it's gonna come with less cost.

This means the services business is higher margin and is seen as a really key part of Kons success.

We can see that going forwards.

We're going to unify the entirety of ITS being equipment and services.

You can see that historically that's already been done, so we can pull that forwards.

You can see that we also have the revenue growth, which we can pull forwards and you can see the percentage.

That's new business, which is trucks and we can pull that forwards as well.

When we take that all the way to the final year, you can see trends start to appear.

The revenue growth will be a combination of the trucks and the services, so having the sub-analysis above is very helpful for understanding those parts of the business rather than trying to combine them, which would lose that detail.

You can see we have a mix analysis here and what it's telling you is that initially trucks are a great part of or a more than half part of the revenue of the business and that's going down initially and then back up again.

And this would be of great interest to managers because they would be interested in services being higher as its potentially higher margin.

The next and final section of ITS, we can't really do yet form the EBITDA because we have a margin.

Now this margin historically is generated for the whole of ITS and so we don't have unfortunately a sub-analysis of equipment to services that's being combined here because of the kind of con disclosures we have and what's available in data providers, you can see that their EBITDA margin is fairly volatile and this is due to, uh, inflation of costs and passing on those costs to customers.

We can generate the overall EBITDA and we can take the overall revenue, multiply it and find the ebitda, but like I say, we can't complete this section and that's because moving from EBITDA to EBIT, which we'd like to do relies on us a portioning, the overall depreciation amortization of this business and we're going to end up doing that on the model tab.

We're not gonna jump around.

We'll finish the segment tab, then we'll go to the model tab and then come back and populate this.

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