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Industrials - Analysis and Modeling

What makes industrials distinct from other sectors, and applies a range of sector-specific techniques.

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33 Lessons (127m)

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  • Description & Objectives

  • 1. Industrials Companies Overviews and Valuations | Interactive Video

  • 2. Introduction to Sector Players

    01:17
  • 3. What Makes Industrials Special

    03:25
  • 4. Backlog

    02:13
  • 5. Backlog Workout

    04:34
  • 6. Original Equipment (OE) vs. After Market (AM) Revenue

    02:04
  • 7. Contracts

    01:59
  • 8. Contracts Workout

    05:17
  • 9. Research and Development (R&D)

    01:17
  • 10. Research and Development (R&D) Workout

    04:58
  • 11. Financing Segment and Sum of the Parts

    02:04
  • 12. Financing Segment and Sum of the Parts Workout

    04:55
  • 13. Pensions in the Industrial Sector

    01:49
  • 14. Pensions in Chemicals Sector Workout

    08:07
  • 15. Industrial Company Example Financials

    01:47
  • 16. Industrial Sector Metrics

    00:59
  • 17. Kion Model - Introduction

    02:46
  • 18. Kion Model - Segments ITS Part 1

    07:08
  • 19. Kion Model - Segments ITS Part 2

    07:14
  • 20. Kion Model - Segments SCS

    04:42
  • 21. Kion Model - Segments Corporate

    02:38
  • 22. Main Kion Model Intro and Assumptions

    03:45
  • 23. Kion Model - Income Statement

    08:17
  • 24. Kion Model - Depreciation

    03:03
  • 25. Kion Model - Research and Development (R&D)

    04:46
  • 26. Kion Model - Total EBIT

    09:54
  • 27. Kion Model - Balance Sheet Assets

    04:02
  • 28. Kion Model - Balance Sheet Liabilities and Equity

    01:24
  • 29. Kion Model - Cashflow Statement

    06:08
  • 30. Kion Model - Interest and Circularity

    04:10
  • 31. Kion Model - Metrics

    03:15
  • 32. Kion Model - Valuation

    05:01
  • 33. Kion Model - IFRS vs. US GAAP

    02:56

Kion Model - Metrics

  • Notes
  • Questions
  • Transcript
  • 03:15

How to analyze and interpret business metrics for an industrials company, Kion.

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Industrials metrics
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Transcript

Next, we're going to work on these metrics and the way we're going to do it is by rolling forward the formulate, which are already in there.

We're going to take what's already there, push it forwards, and then see what's happening to the business.

Let's go line by line.

You can see that what's going on with revenue is quite flat.

Then we've got shrinkage, and that's probably primarily due to the new business revenue growth being negative in that year.

Remember that this is because the clearing of the backlog from six to four months has halted and you can't go any further.

And so the direction of travel backs up and revenue goes down.

The EBIT margin stays flat, which we've discussed is probably a combination of the problematic EBIT margin of ITS and the increasing EBIT margin of the much smaller part of the business.

S-C-S-O-W-C is broadly staying the same with a marginal improvement, and PP E is also broadly staying the same.

Down here we've got some really interesting stuff.

If you look at the total debt and then relate it to the ebitda, you can see that it's very high.

Now you could say that Kon has excellent collateral, but with it being an industrial, but even then, this is very, very high debt compared to ebitda.

That could be Kon being in trouble.

It could be that they've borrowed and borrowed to get through some difficult times.

What's more likely is that this debt may be bound up with their financing arm, and because this model has not looked at the financing arm as a separate segment, we're not able to untangle the operational to the financial arm.

So it could be that this level of debt is bound up more with the debt they need to extend leasing, rental, um, and other financing arrangements to the buyers of their trucks.

If you were to look at Kons financial reports, you would actually find that they report three leverages.

One is regular leverage.

The way we've done it here, one would analyze the leasing business.

One would analyze pensions and other pension like things.

And so Keyon is recognizing that its leverage is very high, And it's helping analysts to understand that in the way that it's reporting the interest expense doesn't make much sense at the moment, and that's because we have the model ignoring interest because we've turned a switch off.

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