Glossary
Financial Forecasting Trading ComparablesTranscript
We're now going to look at how you'd perform a trading comps based valuation for a real business. In this circumstance, we're gonna look at Red Bull, the privately held soft drinks manufacturer.
The starting point is the Red Bull model tab, which has historic numbers in the years to the end of December 21 and projected numbers for the years thereafter.
As you can see, this is a standard three statement model that generates the income statement, balance sheet, and cash flow for the years from 2022 to 2030.
The valuation is as at February, 2022.
We then have four businesses, which are all drinks manufacturers, which are going to provide our comparable multiples.
It's therefore important that we extract detailed information about these four businesses, and those are shown on tabs numbered 1, 2, 3, and four.
The first one is Coca-Cola.
We're going to walk through this tab just so you get a feel for what sort of information is included.
Most of the information that's shown in the dark blue font on the pale blue background is hard keyed in straight from the financial results of Coca-Cola, or it could be extracted automatically using a tool such as Felix. You can see That the analysis date, the date of the valuation is February, 2022, and it's based on actual results up until the end of December 21.
We then have some market information, so the most recent share price, the high and low prices over the last year, the beta earnings per share and so on. We then have some balance sheet information, which is going to enable us to do an equity to enterprise value calculation, and we have, as you can see here, the components of net debt with debt in the G column and cash in the J column.
We also have income statements information as we're doing the valuation as of February, 2022.
We don't need to adjust for the last 12 months with any extra quarters.
We can simply take the results to December 21, and that's what we have over in this column here.
We then have analysts forecasts the consensus estimates for the next three years. This enables us if we move up to the top of the tab to do an equity to enterprise valuation in the normal way, going through the equity to enterprise valuation bridge, adding on net debt to the diluted market capitalization, and we also have both the last 12 months income statements information in terms of sales, EBITDA and ebit, and also the forecasts of those amounts and earnings per share for the next three years.
We then have exactly the same format of information for Keurig, Dr. Pepper, Pepsi, Cola, and Lason, the Canadian fruit juice manufacturer as well.
And these will form our three main businesses that we're going to use to drive our trading comps multiples.
We'll come to this tab later, but the trading comps tab is where we're going to group together all of this information and decide which businesses we're going to compare to, and the final tab, the valuation summary, is where we're actually going to perform the valuation itself.