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Trading Comps Model

Understand how to build a trading comps model.

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6 Lessons (26m)

Show lesson playlist
  • Description & Objectives

  • 1. Model Tour

    04:07
  • 2. Comparable Company Data

    04:25
  • 3. Calculate Ratios

    03:42
  • 4. Target Company Information

    03:31
  • 5. Shortlist of Companies

    04:57
  • 6. Final Valuation

    04:47

Prev: Trading Comparables for Research Next: Transaction Comparables

Shortlist of Companies

  • Notes
  • Questions
  • Transcript
  • 04:57

Shortlist of Companies

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Shortlist of Companies Trading Comparables
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Transcript

It's now time to decide which of our comparable companies we're going to use to provide multiples. That in turn, will enable us to value Red Bull.

What we ideally want is a company that's as similar as possible to Red Bull, but we can then apply to Red Bull in terms of things like its size, its geography, the product that it produces, its margins, its growth, and also its capital structure. There will never be a perfect match, but we need to take these factors into account when we decide which companies to include or which companies to exclude.

So if we look to start with at the sales figure, we can see that Red Bull sales are 6.5 billion euros.

We have in our list a number of other companies that are relatively small, such as Fever Tree, national Beverage, and Glassons.

It's unlikely that these companies will have the economies of scale and the market presence to compete in the same way that Red Bull and Coca-Cola do, and therefore we would probably exclude these straight away because they're simply too small.

If we also think about the sectors that these businesses operate in, red Bull, Coca-Cola, Keurig Dots, pepper, Pepsi Cola all produce non-alcoholic soft drinks. You may be interested, but Pepsi Cola is so much larger than Coca-Cola, perhaps having the more recognizable brands.

Pepsi Cola includes a very large food and snacks division, including things like Doritos, Frito Le, and also Quaker, and they actually make up more than half of the activity of Pepsi Cola.

This in turn, is reflected in relatively poor margins for this business in comparison to the better profits from the soft drinks manufacturing.

It's also worth thinking about companies such as Asai and Santor and San Miguel.

These operate, first of all with the first two predominantly in Japan, and all three operate in the alcoholic drinks sector, which is gonna be different to Coca-Cola and Pepsi-Cola and Red Bull.

If we then move to our ratios, you can see that as we expect in general for these ratios, they all fall over time.

So as sales increase and EBIT and EBITDA increase, we therefore expect the ev, which is static, divided by those rising numbers to also fall.

And it's also worth noting that they tend to converge to a closer range rather than the current levels, which are a little wider.

And therefore that makes sense for us to base our valuation on some of those forward multiples, either the 2022 or 20, 23 years.

If we look at our margins, which are another key indicator, we can see that Red Bull has a relatively Healthy EBITDA sales margin of 30%, whereas businesses like Lason, Santor and San Miguel have much poorer margins.

We can see also Pepsi Cola, because of the non soft drinks elements of its business, again, has relatively low margins. It's also worth looking at the revenue growth.

Again, red Bull has growth forecast of 6.5% and that's relatively in line with some of the other larger soft drinks manufacturing organizations.

We've therefore decided that we will take Coca-Cola, Keurig, Dr. Pepper and Lason and Monster as being the most comparable businesses to Red Bull.

And we therefore have these businesses listed at the bottom of this tab.

The final step to take is therefore to copy their key ratios down.

So we will start with the EV to sales figure and we'll go and pick up Coca-Cola.

We can copy this down for the next two, and then Monster, which is one line below. And having done that, we can copy those numbers to the right for the remaining ratios.

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