Transcript
We're now in a position to do our final valuation of Red Bull.
The first thing to do is to decide which of the multiples we're actually going to use to drive that valuation.
Because of the low profitability of particularly the snacks and food elements of PepsiCo, the there is quite a wide variety or variation in the EV to sales ratio.
So we won't take that.
There's more consistency when we look at EV to profit I E V to EBITDA and EV to ebit. And certainly when we get to our later years, those ratios seem to converge.
So these seem to be the sensible ones to take EV to ebitda.
So we'll go to our evaluation summary tab, and the first thing we'll do is actually pick up that EBITDA number for Red Bull. So we simply take the figure from the Red Bull model, and we want the last 12 months, which is the year to December 21, copy to the right. And there we have our numbers. Next, we want to pick up the minimum and the maximum of the multiples, both for the first forecast year and the second forecast year.
So for the minimum, we'll start with a min formula and we'll go to our trading comps tab and we'll take the first forecast year.
And here's the range of EV to EBITDA multiples.
And that comes back with the lower number.
We'll do the same for the maximum using a max function.
And we reference to the same range of multiples.
And that comes up with the 21.2.
We're now gonna use a clever offset function to actually describe or label where that minimum and maximum comes from.
So we're gonna start with an offset function, and we're going to link that to the trading comps tab, and we're going to go to C 26 and C 26.
I go all the way over to here is the cell just above the names of the companies.
And what we're going to do is we are going to find using a match function, which of those company names has got that lowest level multiple.
So we're going to use a match function and we want to find the 16.1. And where do we want to find That? We want to find that in that trading comps, and we want to find it in this column here in the trading comps list of multiples.
And this comes back with Keurig Dr. Pepper. Finally, we can do the calculation of that implied enterprise value.
So we take 16.1 multiple and we multiply by the first forecast years ebitda, and that gives us a total valuation of 29.4 billion.
We can now populate this in the same way for the remaining calculations.
We've now populated the rest of this section in exactly the same way, and I've displayed my formula so you can see where the calculations come from.
It's worth noting a couple of things before we leave this.
The first is that the range converges as we look to the second forecast year rather than the first forecast year. Secondly, it's the same businesses that have got the minimum multiples and the maximum multiples. So Keurig, Dr. Pepper has the LOM valuation and Coca-Cola has the high valuation.
But you would certainly say that a range of 29 to 37 billion for Red Bull would be a reasonable starting point if you evaluate this business and considering making a bid for it.