Trading Comps Case Study - EBITDA Multiples for Company 1
- 10:12
How to calculate the enterprise value to EBITDA multiples for Coca-Cola from scratch, using the 10K filing, the latest quarterly report, and the consensus estimates from Felix.
Glossary
10K consensus estimate EBITDA Enterprise ValueTranscript
Once we have calculated the implied enterprise value, the next step is to calculate the multiples. And the first thing we'll do is we'll calculate the last 12 months numbers and we're gonna start with the adjusted operating profit. And we're gonna take that from the 10 K filing. Now in actual fact, we do have this already from the accounting information. So in this case, I can go back to the accounting information and pick that up for Coca-Cola. So I want to get the EBIT in the 2023 year. That's a last reported number. So I want to take the adjusted operating profit as reported by the company. If I want to make any further adjustments, then I would note them down here.
For example, if there were some stock-based compensation that's been added back or any amortization issues, then I would make the adjustments here. Then none for Coca-Cola. So I'm just gonna make that 0. And then I would call that EBIT. So by definition, when we see a number called EBIT, what that means is that we're assuming it has been cleaned up, whereas operating profit is just the reported numbers that the company has provided. And then I'm going to go and get the depreciation and amortization, and I'll get that from the accounting as well for simplicity. So this is the reported appreciation and amortization for Coca-Cola. And then finally, I can get the EBITDA, which is just the sum of these two numbers. So, so far we've got most things from the accounting. The problem is, is that since the 10 K was filed, the company has reported a new set of quarterly numbers. So what I'm going to do is I need to update the 12 month period by incorporating the new three months have been reported and removing the old three months that have been reported. The good news is that the Securities and Exchange Commission in their layout of the Q filing have actually made it very easy for us to do this. So we've got the K filing, then I'm going to go to Felix type the ticker, and I'm gonna pull up the Coca-Colas tear sheet. And we want the latest Q filings. You can see that since the fiscal year 2023, there's been one quarter that's been reported. So what I want to do is pull in these this quarter. However, as usual, there's a press release associated with the filing and the press release for things like cleaned earnings is absolutely the best place to go to. So I'm gonna go to the press release. And what I'm going to do here is I'm going to try and find the non-GAAP earnings. Now, normally the non-GAAP earnings are right at the very end of the press release. So I'm just going to do a control end to get me to the end of the document. And then I'll page up and I'm looking for the term non-GAAP. And you can see here that we have got some information here, operating income lost by operating segment and corporate three months ended March 29th 2024, and then the same three months ended March 31st 2023. So what we want to do is we want to add the new quarter and then remove the old quarter. Now this is done by segment analysis, but if I go further up, we probably have just got a operating profit number, and that's a revenue number. If I go further up, let me just see if I've got the operating profit there we go. This looks good. So let's interest go a bit further and eventually we get what we saw in the K filing. So this is the new quarter of this top table, and I've got the reported operating income of 2,141, and then a series of adjustments here. And then the comparable or the recurring operating profit down here. So that's the new number. So I'm gonna go and pick that up as my new adjusted operating profit. And then I'm going to pick the same number up, but for a quarter one year prior.
And I'm gonna put that in the old quarter. So we're gonna remove the 3,488, and we're gonna add the 3,643 number. And that will give us our last 12 months of the comparable operating profit. So I'll take the base 12 months, I'll remove the old quarter, and then I'll add the new quarter. And that will give me a rolling 12 months period to March 29th 2024. So we've got the items there. Now let me go to my annotations and I'm just going to annotate these. So this is the Q1, recurring operating profit 2024. And then I might as well just copy that because it's gonna be very similar to this one. This is the Q1, recurring operating profit for 2023. So it's really helpful if you have these named annotations, because then you can easily find where things are. So that was pretty straightforward and you can see how useful the press release filing is. However, we also want to get the EBITDA number. There are no further adjustments here. If I just take a quick look, there's nothing that says stop based compensation there, and there's no other additional amortization. So I've got no further adjustments, thankfully. And then I can just copy this to the right and then I'll copy the LTM calculation down because I still want to do the LTM calculation base 10 K minus the old queue plus the new queue. And remember, if there've been multiple quarters that have been reported since year end, it may be two quarters that you are subtracting and adding or three quarters that you're subtracting and adding. It's just that we've only got one quarter here. So for the depreciation and amortization, I'm gonna go to the financial statement section of the 8 K filing or the press release. So this is the cash flow statement. And let me just go up a little bit to the income statement. So you can see here for the income statement that laying this out in a very useful way because they're giving us the most recent quarter in the left hand column. And then the same quarter one year prior. So this is design, so you can do LTM numbers, but we are more interested in the cash flow statement. So I'm gonna go to the cash flow statement. And we've got the three months cash flow period, the old quarter, and then the new quarter. So I'm gonna take the old depreciation and amortization and I'm gonna take the new depreciation and amortization just up to my annotations. So this is the Q1 D&A 2023.
And then I'm gonna do the same thing, but just adjust it for 2024. So we've got the updated annotations, and then what I can do is I can calculate my EBITDA number for the old quarter, the new quarter, and then I'll do the same LTM numbers. So let me just explain this. So we're taking the adjusted operating profit, adding D&A for the old quarter, the new quarter, and the base year. And then for the LTM, we take the base year, subtract the old three months and add the new three months. And that will give us a rolling 12 months EBITDA number to March 29th 2024, which is the end of the quarter. So that is our LTM EBITDA number, the 14,595 number. Now on the right here we have the consensus estimates that have been provided by the research community. And what happens here is that the research community will make estimates of what they think Coca-Cola's EBITDA is going to be in 2024, 2025, and 2026. So these are estimates for the future. And then people like FactSet, Bloomberg, they aggregate those estimates and they kind of give us an average or median of the consensus estimates. Now we have this in Felix. If I go back to Coca-Cola and I go to the tear sheet down at the bottom we have the consensus estimates. And these probably need updating since it has been done. So you can see this was done on March 7th. So I'm just going to update these because we're doing this more recently and we'll do 9th of May 2024. So one of the issues is when you update your comps, you actually do need to update the consensus estimates because they will change according to what's happening in the market, what news has come out. So if I can just do paste text that should all update there and I've got my consensus estimates, then what I can do is I can now calculate my multiples. And when I calculate the multiples, I want to make sure that I keep my enterprise value constant. So I'm gonna fix the enterprise value and I'll just do it for the LTM year first. So I'll go up to the enterprise value and I'll absolute reference that, and then I'll divide it by the LTM EBITDA number and I'll format that as a multiple. So I get 19.1, and if I copy that right, usually companies earnings are going to be growing. So what you would normally expect to see is the multiple decline as you use forward earnings. It's not always the case, but in the vast majority of situations, if a companys earnings are growing as they normally are in most situations, you will see the forward multiple decrease. And if that's not the case, you will be asked about it. So double check if that is not the trend that you can see. So that is our enterprise value. EBITDA multiples for Coca-Cola from scratch.