Trading Comps Case Study - Company 2 Diluted Equity Value
- 09:07
How to calculate the diluted shares outstanding and the diluted market capitalization for Keurig Dr. Pepper, using the latest financial filings and the current share price.
Glossary
Diluted Shares Market Cap share priceTranscript
The next company we're going to do from scratch is Keurig, Dr. Pepper. So I'm gonna go up to the top and just copy the labels from above just to save a little bit of time. I may need to change some of them, but I may as well just start with the base set of labels. So I'm just gonna copy these down and the company name that we're using here is gonna be Keurig Dr. Pepper. And then we're going to get the basic shares outstanding. So I'm going to go to Felix and I'll type Keurig Dr. Pepper. And I get the tear sheet and I want the latest financial filing, which is the 10 Q. And I'm gonna click on the 10 Q and I go down at the bottom of the front page and I want these outstanding shares. So I'm gonna paste that in and I'm just going to divide it by a million and then put an equal sign at the beginning. You may find that some bankers really like to see the million typed in as a hard number. I'm not that OCD, but you may have that. And then what we now need to do is get the number of options usually in the 10 Q filing. There's probably not option information, but it's always worth a quick check. So if I go down to the notes to see if there's anything about stock-based compensation, there is, that still means that there's not necessarily information about stock options. And you can see here if I just close sections, to give me a bit more space that we've got the stock option expense information. We've got the RSU activity, but that's it. And for my prior analysis of this company, they do have options. So I'm a bit worried about using disinformation because it won't include my option information. So what I'm going to do is I'm gonna go to the 10 K filing to see if there's more information. So I'll go to the 10 K filing. I'll go to sections and I'll again, we'll look for stock-based compensation. It's there. And here we've got the expense at the top. And then we've got the restricted share units and performance share units and stock options. So in fact they do have a lot more information in the K filing. And it's uncomfortable because although the Q filing is more recent because there's more detail in the K, I'm actually going to take the K filing. Now down at the bottom here we have got a couple of options. We can take the outstanding number or the exercisable number and in fact they are actually the same. But let me explain the issue here. Exercisable means they're legally exercisable today. However, most option holders don't necessarily convert their options even if they can do, because when they do convert them, they get a big tax bill. So if they want further exposure to the stock, they will just keep them outstanding. However, usually there's a lock-in period of at least three years from when you get granted. The options to when they become exercisable during that period, they're outstanding but not exercisable. So the outstanding number includes both the options still within the vesting period and the exercisable options. If the options are in the money, we think that the stock market will still price in the dilution of those options, even if they're still within the vesting period. Because if they're in the money when they eventually do vest and there's a big incentive for the executives to stay with the business 'cause they're sitting on a profitable investment, then we expect the market to price that in. So I'm gonna use the outstanding stock options here and I'm going to put that in as a number of options and just be careful because we need to check to see what units these are in. If I just go up to the top of the note, it probably will give us some unit number. And let me see, there's nothing up here but I'm that's in millions. I think that's just the total number of RSUs. Because there's no units, the total number of PSUs, and this is probably the total number of options because there's no unit information. So then what I've got to do, I've actually got to take my number, press F2, divide by a million, and then put an equal sign at the very beginning. And you have to be really careful about this. So I'm just going to increase the decimal just so it's clear that there are actually some numbers there. Sometimes the option table is in thousands, sometimes it's in millions. You just get a variance. So just be careful. Then we want to take the weighted average exercise price, that 14.76 and I'm gonna paste that in. Then I need to get the most recent share price for Keurig Dr. Pepper. So I'm just going to go to the front page and I'll get the current share price, which is $34.17 cents. So I'll put 34.17 there as a hard number and make it blue. Two decimal places I like a bit of accuracy. And then we'll use the shortcut mechanism for the net new shares. And I always use a max function in case the share price changes. And I'll take the share price minus the strike price so they can see they're heavily in the money divided by the share price times the number of options. And if that's negative, I'm gonna ask it to put 0. Because what that will do is just make sure that if they're anti dilutive, it will put 0 in the cell because if the anti dilutive, that formula will be negative and that's a smaller number than 0. So we've got our net new shares there and you can see it's a tiny, tiny number. Then I'm gonna pull in the RSUs. So let me go back to the 10 K filing and I'm gonna go to the sections and I'm gonna pull in the stock based conversation and I'm gonna come down and I've got the restricted stock units there and I'm gonna put those in. These are just the RSUs. These are time-based RSUs, which is quite normal. So you just have to stay with the company for a certain period of time and then you get the share award. So we've got 15.7 there. And then we also have some performance based. And sometimes we call this PSUs rather than RSUs and they're just down here. So I'm gonna pick up this number here and I'm gonna paste that in. Again, you've got to divide by a million, so you've gotta really watch the units when you're doing this. It's very, very easy to make a mistake. Then probably what I should do is just update my annotations. So we've already got quite a few in here from some other analysis that I've done. Let me jump to these sections. So that was the operating lease cost let me just put in operating lease cost. I've actually not used that here, 2023 and then that so operating lease liability, this is from the accounting.
So you can see having really clear labels is very, very helpful.
That was short term and this is gonna be the same, but it's gonna be long term. So let me just copy that.
And that is stock options.
And then that is option exercise price. You don't need to make this usually detailed, but it's very, very helpful. And these are RSUs when you're looking at a list of items. And then we've got PSUs. I'm just gonna type PSUs there. But you can see now it's really helpful and you can do a search here. So if you type in the search box, you can actually search the items.
Okay, so I've labeled that and now I need to calculate the diluted shares. Outstanding. This is going to be a sum of the basic shares outstanding, the net new shares from options, the performance-based RSUs or PSUs, and the time-based RSUs there.
And then I can calculate my diluted market capitalization, which is just the share price times the diluted as outstanding.