Trading Comps Case Study - Multiples for Company 2
- 09:56
How to calculate the enterprise value to EBITDA multiples for Keurig Dr. Pepper, based on the last 12 months and the consensus estimates.
Glossary
Consensus Estimates EBITDA Non GaapTranscript
So we've got our implied enterprise value and now we've got to do our LTM workings there. So I'm going to just delete some of these surplus rows and I'm going to do my adjusted operating profit here. And I probably should look what we did in the accounting. So if I go to the accounting and I go to Keurig, Dr. Pepper, which is check, I've got the correct year. This is 2023. So the adjusted operating profit is the 3,657. And in this case we made two additional adjustments. One was to strip out the effect of the amortization that they were adding back to get the adjusted operating profit, but we need to be careful because we don't want to add back amortization twice. And they also added back stock-based compensation, which is a real cost to shareholders, not to debt holders, but to shareholders. So this is the amortization add back reversed and this is the stock based compensation reversal add back reversal. So we're not always taking what the company does as what we see as correct. And then we'll calculate EBIT, which is just the sum of those three numbers. And then we can go and get depreciation and amortization. And if we've done the analysis before, we want to pull that in. So that's the reported DNA and the number is the DNA that we're going to get for Keurig Dr. Pepper, which is a 539 number. And then what I can do is I can get my first baseline EBITDA in the 10 K filing just as we had with Coca-Cola. We now need to update that for the LTM period. So what I'm going to do is I'm just going to freeze my pane just so I can see a little bit more here.
And I'm gonna freeze the panes so when I go right, I don't lose the labels. So the adjust operating profit, I'm gonna go to my Keurig Dr. Pepper tear sheet and I want to go to the press release because that's typically where the non-gap earnings are. So I'm gonna go right to the end control end and see if they produce any adjustments. And they do here, they've got a nice kind of breakdown here and we've got the adjustments and they've done it down to EBITDA. This sometimes actually makes a little bit more challenging, so I'm just gonna go up to see if they have anything specifically for the first quarter. Yes, they do. That's great. So I'm gonna go up to the operating profit number. So we've got the income from operations for the first quarter 2024, and for the first quarter of 2023. So it's the same exact issue. We'll add the new quarter. and we'll subtract trapped the old quarter. So what I want to do is get the income from operations on an adjusted basis, the 825, and that's for the 2024. So that's the new quarter. You've gotta be quite careful here. It's quite easy to make a mistake. And then I want the same adjusted number for the 12 months prior. So I'm gonna pull that in. And remember we didn't agree with adjusting for amortization or stock-based compensation. So we need to reverse those items just as we did before. So that 34 I'm going to paste in. I'll change the signs in a moment, that 5, that's the old queue. And then I'll do the same for the new queue, the amortization and the stock-based compensation. So we don't agree with this adjustments. So not only do we have to make those adjustments in the year end, we also need to do it for each quarter. So you can see this is pretty time consuming and it's very easy to make mistakes. You have to be do this with a clear head and some diligence. So what we've done that we can now calculate EBIT for the old quarter and for the new quarter. And then we need to pull in DNA. And I may as well do this from the 10 Q because it's such a nice short document. And I've got the consolidated statement of cash flows. And again, first quarter in 23, the first quarter in 24. So I want the two numbers here. We've got the amortization of intangibles and the depreciation expense. I'm assuming other amortization expenses related to debt financing fees, that would be expenses as part of interest rather than operating profit. So I'm going to take the 107 in the old queue.
And then for the 34, I'm just going to make a kind of manual addition there to the formula. And I'll just put an equal sign at the beginning of that. You can only have one link unfortunately. And then I'm going to do the same for the most recent quarter.
And then I'll just add to that, the 33, and I'll just put a equal sign at the beginning and I'll just make that highlight there just so I've got it in the filings. And then eventually we can calculate the EBITDA number For the new Q and for the old Q, always just double check the numbers. And I should now update my annotation list. I've got quite a few here. So this is the Q1, 2024 adjusted operating profit. And then the 699 is Q1 23 adjusted operating profit. And then the 34 number is, this is for the Q, so this is amortization adjustment Q1 2023.
And then I'll just adjust that is the 24. Let me just double check that. Yeah, that is. And then this is the stock based comp adjustment, Q1 2023.
And then for the 4, that's the same but for 2024. And then the 107 is depreciation Q1 2023. And again, I might as well just copy that 4. And then that's the amortization Q1 2023.
The really nice thing about doing this is that you create a very, very clear audit trail of your work and it's really easy to find things when you ask them. So now what we can do is we can calculate the last 12 months numbers. We can take the base year, we can subtract the old quarter, and then we can add the new quarter.
And then we can also do that for EBITDA as well. Now, just as we did with Coca-Cola, we now need to do the consensus estimates. These a little out of date. So I'm going to go to Keurig Dr. Pepper's tear sheet, go down to the bottom, and I'm gonna pull in the EBITDA consensus estimates for the next three years.
And I'm gonna paste those in and I'll just update shift F2. And this is going to be 9th of May. So you've gotta be really careful about making sure Things are kept up to date. And then finally what we can do is we can calculate some multiples. So I'm gonna do EV over EBITDA and I'll start with the LTM column. I'll take our implied enterprise value, absolute reference divided by the LTM EBITDA number and then copy that, right? Because I've fixed the enterprise value, you can see that the numbers slowly decline into the future. Now in terms of valuation, the LTM number is actually a lot less relevant. We're doing this analysis in May, and that means we're already partway through 2024. In fact, we're five months, almost five months through the year, which is nearly half the year. So it's likely the equity market's actually gonna focus on the 2025 multiple as our key valuation metric. So we've now done two companies from scratch to give you an understanding of how to calculate the multiples based on an LTM multiple and afford multiple.