LBO - Forecasts and Enterprise Value
- 06:47
Pulling revenue and earnigns data from Felix as well as assumptions from the handout. Calculating the acquisition enterprise value of the target company.
Download a file of the data from the free downloads section, or access the live industry data in Felix. Access the live industry data for Flowers Foods here: https://felix.fe.training/company-analytics/?ticker=FLO&cik=0001128928
Transcript
Let's begin our LBO analysis by first copy pasting our revenue and earnings forecasts for the target company from Felix. So here is Felix, and we're gonna take the company sticker and we're gonna type it here. That would be FLO for Flowers Foods. That's gonna take us to the company's page. On the right side of the screen, you will see a tab called valuation. So we wanna go there, and here you're gonna find tons of information about the company's value and related concepts. If we scroll all the way down, you will find the company's revenue and earnings forecasts. So let's click on copy on the top right, and let's go back to our Excel file. Now I'm gonna create a new sheet, and the reason I create a new sheet is because I wanna paste the raw data we just copied from Felix, and that is my raw data. Now, I don't need the labels as I already have the labels on the template. I only need the actual numbers. So let's take all of the numbers here in the middle. Let's copy the numbers, go back to our template and let's paste the data as values. And there we have it. We have our revenue forecasts for 20 25, 26, and 27, as well as our EBITDA and EPS forecasts. So now that we have our forecasts, let's move on to the next step, which is to build out the acquisition enterprise value of the target. We're gonna start with the V wap or the volume weighted average price, which we can also find in the valuation tab in Felix.
Now, that would be all the way up on the left side of the screen. You'll see here the one month Vwa P, it's $17 and 70 cents. So I will take that data and type it in. Felix, as stated on the handout, we're gonna assume an acquisition premium of 30%, and of course, that would give us an acquisition price of 17.7 times one plus 30%.
That would be $23 acquisition price per share. Now we need the number of shares of the company or the number of basic shares. Now you can find this information on the front page of the most recent filing from the company. That would be either the 10 Q or the 10 K, but in our case, we're gonna source that directly from Felix. So in Felix, right here in the middle, you'll see shares outstanding 210 million and some change. So let's take that number and type it into this cell. Now That we have the number of basic shares, we need to convert that into the fully diluted shares outstanding of the company. And for that, we have this small section here on the right where we can enter the stock options and the RSUs information in order to determine what the dilution adjustment is for our company. We can also source that data from Felix. So let's go to Felix and look at the dilution adjustment, which here it says 2.9. Now when you click on that number, you'll see the detail of how we arrive at 2.9. And as you can see here, we have some performance stock units at 1.8. We have some time-based restricted stock units of about 1 million, and then we have another, let's say, a hundred thousand additional restricted stock units. When you add these numbers up, you get a total of 2.9 million restricted stock units. Now, this company does not have stock options, which means we don't have to worry about calculating the dilution from options. Instead, we only have a total of 2.9 million restricted stock units. So this will be very simple because we can simply type 2.9 million in the amount of RSUs. We do not have a strike price. So whether we use a formula to compute the dilution in this case, the dilution will be exactly equal to the number of shares under these restricted stock units. So we're gonna take the 2.9 million and we're gonna link it to our calculation of enterprise value on the left, and we're gonna add the 2.9 million to our basic share count to get our fully diluted share count. Now we can compute our acquisition equity value by simply taking the acquisition price times the fully diluted shares outstanding. And that's gonna give us about $4.9 billion. From here, we can compute our acquisition enterprise value using the enterprise value bridge. So we need data from the company's balance sheet, but we actually have that data on the valuation tab of Felix. So let's go ahead and source every single one of these balances such as NCI debt and so on from Felix, starting with NCI. As you can see here, NCI is zero for this company. However, debt is about a billion. That's 10 21 0.7. So let's bring those numbers in. We have zero for NCI 10, 21 0.7 for debt and debt equivalent. Now we need the pension liability, cash, and other financial assets. So let's get those numbers again from Felix. And As you can see here, we have 3.5 in pension liabilities, 5 million of cash and short-term investments, and 1.5 long-term financial assets. So let's bring those numbers over here, 3.55 and 1.5. We are now ready to compute the target's acquisition enterprise value. We will take the acquisition equity value. We are gonna add NCI. We're gonna add debt and debt equivalence. We add pension liabilities, and then we subtract cash and other financial assets and that will give us the acquisition enterprise value of the target company.