LBO - Operational Model
- 05:32
Building the operations model. Forecasting the target company's revenues and earnings down to net income, as well as other key metrics such as capex.
Download a file of the data from the free downloads section, or access the live industry data in Felix. Access the live industry data for Flowers Foods here: https://felix.fe.training/company-analytics/?ticker=FLO&cik=0001128928
Transcript
Next, let's begin building the company's financial forecasts. Now, before we can start forecasting things like revenue and earnings, let's take a look at the assumptions. So for revenue growth, we are provided with the growth for the years 28, 29, and 2030, but we need the growth for the years 26 and 27. Now we can get these numbers from the very top, which is the data that we pulled from Felix, and we have 1.1% growth in 2026 and 2.3 in 2027. We can also get our EBITDA margin from the same section of the model all the way at the top, and that will be 10.7 in 2026, and the same value for 2027. So now we have revenue growth and EBITDA margin starting in 26 all the way through 2030. Next, we should be looking at the operational improvements that we're gonna assume in this model. And if you recall in the handout, we are told that operational improvements will be 1.5% of LTM revenue, but we won't reach this level until year three. So let's build that assumption into the model. So I'm gonna go here to 2028 and I'm gonna type 1.5%, which is year three, and that's gonna be the maximum level after year three. But before year three, we have to gradually increase the percentage, so I'm gonna assume 0.5% in year one and 1% in year two. Now we have our entire forecast of operational improvements, and below we have our CapEx, our DNA, and our working capital assumptions. So now we can get started building our operational financial forecast, starting with revenue. Let's first take the revenue for 2025 from the section at the top of the model, which is 54 13, and now we can use that as our basis to forecast revenue from 26 onward. So I'm gonna take last year's revenue times one plus the growth rate assumption, and that gives me 54 73. I'm gonna be building our forecasts only for column F, and at the end I will copy everything to the right. Next we have EBITDA before operational improvements. So that would be simply taking the EBITDA margin times our revenue, and that's 5 85 0.6. Now we're gonna build in The operational improvements. Remember, this is a percentage of LTM revenue, so I'm gonna take the 0.5% in year one and multiply times LTM revenue, which is all the way in the top section. Okay, now we have our operational improvements forecasted for year one. So we can compute our EBITDA after improvements, and that would be the 5 85 plus the 25. That gives us six 11.1. So we'll move on to our CapEx forecast. If you see here it says CapEx will be 3% of sales. So let's take the 3% times our sales, we get 1 64. Next D-N-A-D-N-A is related to CapEx. You can see here it says CapEx as a percentage of DNA is 110%. So what I can do is take the 1 64 CapEx forecast and divide it by 110% to get our DNA of 1 49. So now we can get our EBIT or earnings before interest and taxes by taking our EBITDA after the improvements and subtracting the DNA. That gives us 4 61 0.9, and we got our estimate or forecast of EBITDA. Now the next line is interest expense. For this line, we have to wait until we have built our debt forecasts and our cash forecasts. So we're gonna skip this line for now and move on to our profit before tax, and that will be EBIT minus our interest expense right now, still 4 61 because we haven't yet calculated interest expense now to tax expense, we have an assumption of the tax rate over here on the left.
We took this tax rate from Felix at 24.7%. I'm gonna lock that value and I'm gonna multiply that times profit before tax. That gives us a tax expense of one 14.1. So now we can get our net income, which is the difference between the profit before tax and the tax expense.