LBO - Cash Flow and Debt
- 05:30
Forecasting the cash flow and debt based on the deal assumptions and the sources and uses of funds. Debt repaid as a % of debt is calculated.
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Transcript
Now that we have forecasted our net income, with the exception of course of interest expense, let's move on to forecasting the cash flow available for debt repayment as well as the debt balances over the five year period. So let's begin here on row 79 with net income, which we have up here at 3 47 0.8. Now to get to cashflow, the first thing we need to do is add back DNA.
And now we wanna subtract two things, our CapEx spend, as well as our changes in working capital. So for CapEx, we have 1 64 here in row 71. And for working capital, we're gonna do it in two steps. Step one, we forecast the working capital balance, and then we calculate the change in working capital. So up here in the assumptions we are provided with a percentage of sales assumption for working capital. So let's take that 3% times the revenue or sales. We can copy that to the right. And now we have our working capital balance for 2025 and 2026. We can then compute the change, but of course, we want any increases in working capital to lower our cash flow. So I'm gonna take last year's working capital minus this year's working capital to get negative 1.8. Now we can calculate our forecast of cash flow available For debt repayment, we are gonna take net income, we're gonna add DNA, we're gonna subtract CapEx, and we're gonna subtract our changes in working capital so we get a cash flow of 3 31 0.1. Now we can use this value to build our senior and junior debt trenches and to forecast our outstanding debt. So let's begin with our senior debt. First, I need to get my initial senior debt balance, and I can get that from my sources of funds. And that would be 1.8, 1.9 billion. That's our starting point here. And now we can build our year one forecast of senior debt. So we take beginning balance equals last year's ending balance. For the repayment, we're gonna use our negative mean formula where we take the lower of our beginning balance and the cashflow available. And that would be, in this case, negative 3 31. We add The two to get our forecast of our ending balance for year one. Now the next line is interest expense, but we're gonna skip that line for now and finish up our debt balances only. So let's move on to our junior debt. Again, we need to bring the initial balance from the sources of funds.
We can then link that up to our beginning balance of year one.
Again, we're gonna use our negative mean formula between the beginning balance. This time we're gonna take the cashflow available and we're gonna add it to any cashflow that was already used in paying down the senior debt.
And that gives us a repayment of zero because we have no money left to pay down our junior debt. We're gonna add this two to get the same balance of 8 0 7 0.8. And the last thing we're gonna do is we're gonna compete a very important metric, which is the debt repaid as a percentage of total debt. Now we typically want about 50% of the debt to be repaid by year seven of the forecasts. Now to compute this ratio debt repaid as a percentage of total debt, we're gonna go back to 2025. We're gonna take one minus the ratio of our outstanding debt. In this case, it would be the senior debt balance plus the junior debt balance. And we're gonna divide that by the initial loan amounts, which in this case will be the same. But of course this ratio would change when we copy the formula to the right. So again, let's take the senior debt balance. This time we're gonna lock that value and we're gonna add the junior debt balance and lock that value. That's gonna give us, of course, 0% in 2025 since we don't start paying anything down until 2026. Now let's copy this formula to the right and we can see that by the end of 2026, we'll have paid 12.3% of the total debt.