DCF - EV Bridge Using Felix, and Outputs
- 05:06
Using Felix to supply real live figures for the EV bridge, such as diluted shares outstanding, debt, cash , pensions liabilty, etc. Also discussing the final valuation, how it compares to the market, and loking at the implied Ev multiple and what it says about the company and its peers.
Glossary
equity to EV bridgeTranscript
Our final step is to produce the outputs desired by our md. If I scroll down to the bottom, we need to come up with an implied EV FY one EBITDA multiple for a TI. I'd like to compare it to its peer group and we need to come up with an implied share price. I'd like to compare that to ATI's actual closing share price last night so I could work out if our implied figure is at a premium or a discount to it. In order to get from enterprise value to equity value, we're going to have to go over the EV bridge. We can get all of those figures from Felix. So let's go to the Felix page. I'm on ATI's page. I make sure that I'm on that valuation tab, and we have this EV bridge section. Very useful indeed. Now, one important thing to point out is that this diluted market cap here that's been calculated, that's using the share price and the shares outstanding, et cetera, we have not used that. We've done a discounted cashflow calculation instead, so we have got to an EV at the bottom. We need to get from that EV up to our own implied equity or market cap figure. We'll use these same numbers from the bridge to help us. So I need NCI debt after tax pension, short term financial assets and cash and any long term, which there aren't any. So I wanted to copy these figures into Excel. Here. I've got those figures in Excel. Now the handout mentioned JV investments or joint venture investments. They were 200, so I'll type them in. They have not been recognized in the EV bridge here, so I can now calculate my equity value or implied equity value implied EV minus these three sources of funding plus short-term financial assets, cash and jv, getting me to an equity value of 9 6 2 3 0.7. I need to divide by the diluted shares outstanding. Again, if I go back to Felix on the right hand side here, I can see those diluted shares. Outstanding is right there. I can click into it. I can see the calculation if I want, I can see the shares outstanding, one for 1.1. If I want to see where that's come from, just click into that and it will open it up in Felix and it'll show you the figure in the 10 K or in this case, the 10 Q. There it is. Great. So diluted shares outstanding is going to be 1 4, 1 0.9. My implied share price equity divided by shares 67.8. I want to compare that to the closing share price. I can see that in Felix on the right hand side here. It's 73.93. That is interesting. Our implied figure is suggesting a valuation lower than the market currently has. Let's work out the exact discounts. So I take my new figure divided by the old minus one. We're operating at an 8.3% discount. So using our management assumptions and estimates and using our own figures to calculate A DCF, we think the valuation as implied by the market at the moment is a little bit high. Next up, I want to compare our implied EV forward EBITDA multiple with that seen in Felix. So let's get that EV figure. There it is. I need to divide that by EBITDA from up at the top. Remember, it's going to be the forward one. So I take it from year 25 and I've got figure 13.1. Let's compare that to the multiples that we see in Felix. So on the right hand side here, I can see I've got two companies, Texas and Halt. They were involved in the high performance materials. If we go back to our handouts, yeah, halt, here we go. And Texas, they were good comps for the HPMC segment. And a quick reminder, the HPMC was the high performance materials and components. What do we see from their multiples? Their multiples? Wow, 22.9. 29.9. If only 80 TI could pivot so that it was producing more in the HBMC. HBMC is approximately half of their production at the moment. Their multiple would be much higher, whereas we see Reliance and Carpenter, those two companies were better peers for the alloys and solution segment of a TI. Those two companies have much lower multiples and we can see that our 13.1 here, much closer to these two. So the market definitely sees a TI as being good peer for reliance and carpenter less so with Texas and halt. And if we look at our own multiple from the DCF that we've calculated, we see that it is, yes, much more in line with Reliance and Carpenter. Not so much with Texas and Hal.