DCF - Requirements
- 03:17
Setting up and discussing the requirements as set by an MD. A review of the estimates and assumptions given to us by the company's management, and looking at what will have to be filled by us.
Glossary
DCFTranscript
In this session, we'll look at the Felix DCF challenge. If you want to pause the recording for a moment, read through this handout and then come back and we'll look at some noteworthy items. Okay, so we're looking at ATI and we need to do a DCF on them. The CEO is keen to understand whether the company's current market valuation reflects the changes that are going on. It's important to realize that the solution we're giving you here is at a very particular date. Your numbers will look a bit different because you are using live financial data, but your overall conclusion and analysis should be the same, albeit at a different date. Okay, so if we have a quick look down, we're told we're valuing as at the 1st of January 25. It's an eight year DCF. We're going to use the growing perpetuity formula for terminal value and ultimately we want to look at an implied share price. We will then compare that to the company's real share price as of today, as of the day that I'm recording this, and we'll look at an implied EV EBITDA multiple and again, compare that to the real multiples happening today. Now we need to spend quite a bit of time coming up with the assumptions in the DCF, but we've been given some guidance. Management expects revenue growth of circa 8% per annum over the next few years, and eight year revenue CAGR of 6%. So we're going to have to bridge the gap between those two numbers. We're then given some EBITDA margins. That's great. CapEx will be elevated. That's great. We can easily put those numbers in. Tax operating working capital and the JV, no real issues, but then randomly we're told for the company's main competitors. Now that is interesting, we're going to have to use that in just a moment. We're then told when building the DCF obtained the required year 24 financial statements. Now why do we need that? Well, we're going to take the old revenue in year 24 and we'll grow that and it'll enable us to calculate free cash flow in year 24 and then compare that to 25 and we can use that as a sense check. We're then told you don't have to build a three statement model. Great. But we do want to monitor the invested capital growth. Now this feels like the MD has just kind of thrown this in. It feels like it's a bit of an aside, but this is actually insanely important to any good DCF model. We have to model how quickly the invested capital is growing. If it's growing way too fast or if it's going way up and then down and up and down, it means there's something wrong with our DCF free cash flows. So we definitely need to monitor that. We're going to spend quite a bit of time looking at that. We then need to calculate that WACC. Now we're told some specifics. We'll use a custom equity risk premium of 5%. We'll put that into Felix, but then we're told to come up with an industry beta based on identified peers. We are going to use these specific peers mentioned up at the top here. We'll put them into Felix, and Felix will then calculate the required beta for us.