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Building a 13 Week Cash Flow Model

Learn to build a 13-week cash flow model for “SGC Inc”, a 200-year-old glass manufacturer in financial distress.

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17 Lessons (128m)

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  • Description & Objectives

  • 1. Case in Point SGC Intro

    04:42
  • 2. Building the Model

    06:09
  • 3. Step 0 Model Introduction

    08:00
  • 4. Step 1 Convert Monthly IS to Weekly

    11:14
  • 5. Step 1b Convert Monthly IS to Weekly - Expenses

    12:28
  • 6. Step 2 Calculating OWC Rollforwards - AR

    08:33
  • 7. Step 2b Calculating OWC Rollforwards - Inv AP

    07:38
  • 8. Step 2c Calculating OWC Rollforwards - Wages

    05:59
  • 9. Step 3 PPE

    04:11
  • 10. Step 4 Revolver Base

    08:46
  • 11. Step 5 13 Week CFS

    06:24
  • 12. Step 6 Cash Reconciliation

    05:49
  • 13. Step 7 Calculating the Revolver

    17:43
  • 14. Step 8 Debt and Interest

    07:11
  • 15. Step 9 Summary BS

    03:38
  • 16. Step 10 Reconciling EBITDA to CF

    07:09
  • 17. Case in Point Summary

    02:00

Prev: Divestiture Modeling Next: 13 Week Cash Flow Modeling Scenarios

Step 2 Calculating OWC Rollforwards - AR

  • Notes
  • Questions
  • Transcript
  • 08:33

Step 2 Calculating OWC Rollforwards - AR

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OWC-AR-13WCF-Model-EmptyOWC-AR-13WCF-Model-Full

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Transcript

We are now going to begin calculating the working capital and other asset balances. These are sometimes called roll forwards or base analyses. We are going to be figuring out where the account began on the balance sheet and how it got to its ending period balance. And that's done through usually, a couple of different changes, inflows and outflows from that account. We'll start with accounts receivable. And again, what we're trying to do here is we're trying to, we're looking at those accounts that reflect or that impact the cash flow for the period. So accounts receivable being directly linked to sales will tell us in effect what part or portion of our sales were converted to cash in a given period. So if we go and we look at the monthly roll forward, which has already been done for us either by the company or by the analyst previously, and looking at this data, what we see here is that we have a beginning balance for accounts receivable, which comes from the ending balance of the period before. And that account accrues the revenues, sales from a given period, and then also is reduced by the amount of cash receipts or cash that was collected in the period. So this is the number that we're actually interested in here, the customer receipts. So if we know the ending accounts receivable, we could therefore, back into the customer receipts, knowing already what our sales are from the income statement, which we just completed, and the beginning balance, which always comes from the previous period. So what we would need to do here then is have an understanding in each period what the ending accounts receivable is. So let's go over to the weekly roll forward and see what's going to happen here. The period that is for cashflow week one, period one, is November 6th. The previous period ended on October 30th. So in this case, we have the benefit of the history of this cashflow model being done, and therefore we have an ending balance here. We would need a jumping off point to do this if we were starting this from scratch. We would need to know what the accounts receivable were on October 30th of, in this case, 2020. So hopefully, we would be able to get that information from management from the Treasury Department, the finance staff. If we had an October 31st balance sheet, that's obviously a day off, could we use it? I think we probably could use it. It wouldn't be entirely accurate, but it would be a jumping off point. And I have found with these that a lot of times, we have to make some concessions along the way because of how much data mining we're doing here. In this case, we have the previous roll forward, we have the ending balance from the last week, the 13th week of the previous period. We're going to use that. So this is going to become the beginning balance of the current year. The sales, we already have because we've done the weekly income statement. So I will go over here, make sure that I'm in the correct period, which is project period one, and I'll go ahead and get my revenues from the current period. Now, again, I need to solve for cash receipts. So I can't solve for two factors because it just won't work. So what I need to do is I need to understand what is my ending balance for accounts receivable. This is where the days sales outstanding is going to help us. If we look back at the previous 13 weeks, we can make an assumption for the cash receipts based on the previous trends. However, it's much more common to forecast ending accounts receivable using the days sales outstanding formula. So here, we would look at the average days outstanding and we could look at that over the trailing weeks, which is what row 16 does. We could look at it over the trailing four-week period, which might give us a more smoothed over. We could also look at it over a trailing quarter, which could possibly even give us an even smoother period. There's not a tremendous amount of difference. It seems like actually, the quarter data is the highest and that's the data we have, the least amount of quarterly data. So what we're gonna do is we're actually gonna assume that the trailing four-week and the trailing week data is pretty accurate. And we've got an assumption here that says basically that accounts are collected on average of about 53 days. Sometimes using days or weeks can give you some strange numbers here. And in this case, the number is a little bit high, not so much because it's, because there's static here, but primarily because this company is in a downturn and they're experiencing some problems in their collectibles, as well as on the other side, on their payables as we'll see. So they're having a major issue with the cashflow as a result. This period that we are talking about here is one that has been affected by COVID-19 pandemic. So as a result, the entire process has broken down here. They've had issues collecting, they've had issues paying, they've had issues turning their inventory over. And we'll see all of that in the numbers. What we need to do here is we need to calculate our ending balance for accounts receivable. And that's going to be done by taking our sales for the period and multiplying it by the days sales outstanding. We need to be careful here because we're using sales only over a week. So typically, when this number is calculated in a model, we're using annual, 365, or maybe quarterly, 90, but here we're using seven for seven days in a week. So I'm going to go and divide by seven and I get my ending accounts receivable balance. Now, with an ending accounts receivable balance, I can go ahead and back into what my customer receipts were and that's gonna be my ending balance minus my beginning balance, plus my sales. And that tells me that in this period, I collected 4,881 in, throughout of my outstanding accounts receivable. And now, with these numbers, I am able to copy across the entire forecast. So just to reiterate, I began with accounts receivable. I added to them with my current sales. I collected the cash. The cash is showing here as a negative because it's actually reducing my accounts receivable, but we will consider that cash as positive, of course, when we get to the cashflow statement. And then I have my ending balance, which carries on into my next period. And we can also see that our accounts receivable days outstanding is actually growing over the life of this company, which is obviously not a good thing. We're not gonna get too much into the assumptions on how we got them, but this is a particularly stressful period for this company because they're heading into their, what is normally their busy season, but the restrictions and lockdowns from the pandemic are still in place. Restricting travel, restricting entertainment, which is what this company benefits from in terms of its glassware and tableware. So their big issue right now is can they get through this year-end period and remain liquid and solvent?

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