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Building a 13 Week Cash Flow Model

Learn to build a 13-week cash flow model for “SGC Inc”, a 200-year-old glass manufacturer in financial distress.

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17 Lessons (128m)

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  • Description & Objectives

  • 1. Case in Point SGC Intro

    04:42
  • 2. Building the Model

    06:09
  • 3. Step 0 Model Introduction

    08:00
  • 4. Step 1 Convert Monthly IS to Weekly

    11:14
  • 5. Step 1b Convert Monthly IS to Weekly - Expenses

    12:28
  • 6. Step 2 Calculating OWC Rollforwards - AR

    08:33
  • 7. Step 2b Calculating OWC Rollforwards - Inv AP

    07:38
  • 8. Step 2c Calculating OWC Rollforwards - Wages

    05:59
  • 9. Step 3 PPE

    04:11
  • 10. Step 4 Revolver Base

    08:46
  • 11. Step 5 13 Week CFS

    06:24
  • 12. Step 6 Cash Reconciliation

    05:49
  • 13. Step 7 Calculating the Revolver

    17:43
  • 14. Step 8 Debt and Interest

    07:11
  • 15. Step 9 Summary BS

    03:38
  • 16. Step 10 Reconciling EBITDA to CF

    07:09
  • 17. Case in Point Summary

    02:00

Prev: Divestiture Modeling Next: 13 Week Cash Flow Modeling Scenarios

Step 2c Calculating OWC Rollforwards - Wages

  • Notes
  • Questions
  • Transcript
  • 05:59

Step 2c Calculating OWC Rollforwards - Wages

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Transcript

Next, we're gonna move on to salaries and wages payable, which will reflect both the cost of goods sold wages, and the SG and A wages. The ending salaries and wages payable will be estimated from an assumption based on the previous 13 weeks, again, proving how helpful it is to have this information. What we see from the historical trends is that more employees, or more wages, are paid on every other week. This implies that there is a staggered pay for certain employees, perhaps hourly versus salaried. This is something we would not likely discover in a monthly or quarterly forecast, where the payments tend to catch up or even out. So again, we have the ending balance from the previous historical year, which will become the beginning balance in the first projected period, which is 6th of November. And we have the additional accruals from the income statement. And we have the salaries and wages paid, which will reduce our accrued liability. This is going to come from our assumption below in blue, 18% of the beginning balance, and that's going to fluctuate every other period between 18% and 28%, keeping in line with our historicals. Then we'll be able to calculate the ending wages payable using base analysis. The accrued wages payable is going to come from the income statement, and that's going to be the payroll under cost of sales, plus the payroll under SG and A. And again, we're gonna have to flip the entirety of that formula in order to make it positive, because the wages and the income statement are accruing to the beginning balance of the wages payable. And then the wages and salary paid will be a function of our assumption times the beginning balance, and that has to get flipped to a negative because it's going to reduce the accrual amount. And then our ending amount will simply be the sum of those. Adding the accruals, subtracting the wages, which are negative, doing it as a sum, and we can copy this across. Accrued liabilities is the last working capital account that we need to model. Accrued liabilities will be impacted by the other operating expenses recorded on the income statement, and the cash payments that reduce the liability. There are very few other operating expenses that we have not covered already. These are SG and A expenses that can cover a wide range of things. Most likely, these are not daily or weekly cash expenditures, but perhaps once a month items. Rather than make this more complicated than it needs to be, we have forecast an expenditure once every four weeks. And the accrual account is in row 50, which is equal to what was accrued on the weekly income statement. So again, we will take the beginning balance, which is the ending balance of the previous accrued liabilities. And then we will take the accrued expenses directly from the income statement, and that is going to be in row 18. And here, we will have to reverse this to be positive because it is accruing. And then again, as a formula to solve for the ending accrued liabilities, we'll just take a sum of that group of numbers because the cash operating disbursements are forecast here as negative. So I can go ahead and copy this, just making sure not to copy over the assumptions. It's one of the dangerous things about having assumptions spread throughout the model, which is very realistic. Happens all the time, but we have to be careful that we don't do wholesale copying. Our cash operating disbursements are simply being forecast here, as they have been historically, sort of once a month, once every four weeks. And we're just keeping it simple, and we're letting this account accrue for three weeks and then pay down. It's probably realistic, again, it may not make all the accountants in the world happy, but it's definitely from a cashflow perspective more realistic and we're trying not to reinvent the wheel. So we've have finished accrued liabilities, and we have finished salaries and wages payable. If we just take a look back quickly at the balance sheet, we'll see that in addition to accounts receivable and inventory, there are also prepaid and other current assets. And on the liability side, we had accounts payable salaries, wages, and accrued liabilities for working capital. We covered all of the liabilities accounts, we did not cover the prepaid and other current assets. And the reason is is that, again, without really doing forensic accounting here and figuring out what expenditures are leading to prepaid and other current assets, it's almost impossible with the information that we have to figure out what expenditures would be going to this account. It's possible and probable that many of the prepaids are insurance, because insurance is something that most manufacturing and industrial companies do have. Most companies have them, Insurance is something that most companies do carry. It is prioritized in a restructuring, and definitely in a bankruptcy. And so there would probably be some expenditures that would contribute to a fluctuation in the prepaid and other current assets. I am ignoring that in this situation because we simply do not have the information to make that decision. Our numbers will still reconcile at the end. We will still be able to reconcile completely the changes in these balance sheet accounts, and that's effectively what we need to make sure that the 13-week cashflow statement is working correctly.

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